NBA Finals Picks & Predictions: Sunday (Pacers vs. Thunder)
An exciting NBA season concludes on Sunday with the first NBA Finals Game 7 since 2016. This has been about as back-and-forth as a series could be, with neither team ever pulling ahead for more than a one-game lead in the series.
For one last time this season, let's take a deeper look at the matchup for some NBA best bets in Game 7.
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Sunday’s Best NBA Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder
Just when you think you have this series figured out, it gets turned upside down. Oklahoma City coasted to a win in Game 5 and was one win away from a championship, with Tyrese Haliburton not at 100% and clearly showing it. They entered Game 6 on the road as 5-point favorites and proceeded to play their worst game of the series, scoring just 91 points on their worst shooting game from deep in the series.
Despite a strong 15-of-42 effort from three-point territory, Indiana shot even worse than Oklahoma City from the floor in Game 6. It was a 19.7% turnover rate that they forced against the Thunder, and the Thunder's poor long-range shooting performance, that catapulted them to a win.
In Game 7s, you typically expect to see a more deliberate pace. Teams try to maximize every possession, and younger teams like Indiana and Oklahoma City tend to tighten up offensively. Officiating will often allow both teams to play a more physical style of defense, which bodes well with how both of these teams like to play.
Game 6 was the second-fastest-paced game in this series. Yet, it ended up being the lowest-scoring game. I don't expect these teams to speed things up in this crucial game, as they've both been playing a few possessions below their season averages all series. There is a reason no team has eclipsed 100 points in an NBA Finals Game 7 since 1988, and no Game 7 has eclipsed a total of 214 since 1962.
With a low-scoring game expected, we can turn our attention to the sides. Much like the unders trend, there is a strong trend towards big underdogs covering. The last time we saw a Game 7 end with a margin of victory over seven was in 1984. These games stay low-scoring and tight.
There has already been early steam on Indiana that has moved this number from +8.5 to +7.5. Most bettors seem to be on the same page that this is too many points for a series that has been so even.
The historical trends and the game script both point to a cover by the big underdogs and the under. Indiana has shown time and time again that they belong in this spot and unexpectedly relied on their defense in some games to make this a series.
I'll be taking the Pacers against the spread and the under on the total. But each game in this series has seen the team that covered the spread win straight up, so I wouldn't blame you if you wanted a piece of the Moneyline. Regardless, buckle in for an exciting conclusion to the 2024-25 NBA season.
Picks: Pacers +7.5 (-112) & Under 214.5 Points (-110)