NBA Finals Player Props & Bets: Pacers vs. Thunder (Game 1)
Well, folks, we finally made it. The NBA Finals are here. The Thunder sit as the Goliath to the Pacers’ David as Indiana attempts to continue their Cinderella run to an NBA Championship.
Before getting to it, I want to thank all those who followed along this year. Barring something drastic, this was another profitable season and one of my best in my years covering the NBA. But enough of that. As always, monitor any potential news and lineup announcements.
The best way to stay informed about NBA player props is to stay up-to-date with the latest news. That's not as prevalent in the NBA Finals, but you never know what might happen. The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value. Let's get to it.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
Thursday’s Best NBA Player Props & Bets: Finals Game 1
Last Time: 0-2 | Season: 170-124
Tyrese Haliburton Under 31.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-110 bet365)
I know, it's no fun. Tyrese Haliburton has been awesome to root for if you aren't a Knicks fan over the last couple of weeks, but the Thunder are simply a different beast defensively. They rank highly or first in all the primary defensive metrics. But the central standout here is that Haliburton struggled with a capital S in matchups against Oklahoma City this season.
In his first matchup against the Thunder, Haliburton managed just four points. In the second, he dished out just three assists. I'm comfortable taking the combo prop here because he will struggle in one of the stat categories. He also was forced to one of his lowest usage rates of the season in those games, and that’s what I expect on Thursday night from the Thunder - pushing the ball to be in the hands of anyone but Haliburton. With Oklahoma City’s plethora of elite perimeter defenders, it will be a wake-up call for such a guard who went through the East without facing a defense like the Thunder's.
Chet Holmgren Over 17.5 Points + Assists (-120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
I don't want to say Chet Holmgren has been a sleeping giant per se, but it doesn't seem like he's fully reached his potential these playoffs, as the Thunder have been playing with their food with every non-Denver team. Holmgren has been consistent in the last eight games but hasn't had a breakout performance. He's scored in the double-digits in all eight of those matchups and 20+ in three of the last four.
Holmgren’s minutes are above 31 a night, and Indiana will have trouble matching up with the Thunder’s frontcourt. Indiana hasn't been great against opposing power forwards this year. The BettingPros NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet projects Holmgren for over 19 on the combo prop. I have trusted the Cheat Sheet with my life this season, and I'm not going to back down now. I don't expect Indiana defensively to keep up with Oklahoma City. Even if they spend all their energy trying to stop Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, that only opens up the door more for Holmgren.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.