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NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (12/5)

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After what I hope was a solid weekend for everyone, let’s start the week right by winning some money in first-basket bets. As always, there are a lot of variabilities when it comes to betting on the first basket but keep in mind these bets are to maximize your profit in the long run.

Here are my favorite first-basket options for tonight’s slate.

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by players with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>

Ja Morant (+600)

I can’t believe Morant is third on first-basket odds for tonight’s game. This feels like a chalky pick with a combination of solid value – a match made in heaven. 

Steven Adams is questionable with right hip soreness so keep that in mind as you make your bets. Assuming he plays, all the numbers line up well for Memphis. Adams boasts a 77 percent tip win rate over the past two seasons, while Memphis holds a 77 percent conversion rate when winning the opening tip.

Over 25 percent of first buckets for the Grizzlies have come from the point guard position this year, which makes me more confident in Morant. Miami’s offense isn’t the most electric in the league, ranking 24th, so even if the Heat takes down the first tip, I don’t hold too much confidence in them converting either.   

Kelly Oubre Jr. (+600)

Where Memphis is a team I target when analyzing first-basket data, the Clippers are a team I fade.

Ivica Zubac doesn’t have the best first-tip success, winning just 38 percent of the time. When he does win, the Clippers capitalize 43 percent of the time, less than half of first possessions. Charlotte isn’t much better at first-tip success, but I still trust Mason Plumlee here.

The shooting guard position is the one to target against the Clippers. Roughly 35 percent of the time, they surrender the first basket to the opponent’s shooting guard. Oubre is the perfect target, with his consistent usage sitting above 25 percent and his points over 20 a game in each of his last four contests.  

Jrue Holiday (+500)

Brook Lopez is an opening tip machine, winning at a 76 percent clip, with Milwaukee converting 62 percent of the time. If you want to bet someone in this game, pick a Milwaukee Buck. My choice – Jrue Holiday. 

The Bucks scored the first basket from the point guard position at a 38 percent clip. Especially with several Milwaukee starters questionable or coming off an injury, Holiday should be set as a go-to guy early. 

Orlando is a solid first-tip-winning team with Bol Bol, but Milwaukee’s second-ranked defense can step up if needed for the first possession. Even at +500, I feel that Holiday offers solid value.  

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All opening tip and first basket data courtesy of NBA First Basket (@NBAFirstBasket)

Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.