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NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (2/27)

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With the NBA back in full swing again after the All-Star Break, I’m continuing with the NBA First Basket articles. Let’s keep 2023 going right by winning some money in first-basket bets. As always, there is a lot of variability when it comes to betting the first basket, but keep in mind these bets are to maximize your profit in the long run, with some being mere lottery tickets. With only four games today, I’m giving two plays.

Here are my favorite first-basket options for tonight’s slate.

Last Time: 1-2 (+3.5U)
Past Month: 3-16 (+5.0U)

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Monday:

Monday’s Best NBA First Basket Bets

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Terry Rozier (+650)

As the home favorite against one of the worst offenses in the league, I have to go with a Charlotte player to score the first bucket tonight. Now, Charlotte’s offense isn’t great either, but I at least trust their defense a bit more than Detroit’s 29th-ranked defense.

While Isaiah Stewart is questionable tonight with right hip soreness, I’m writing this expecting him to take the tip for Detroit. As the tip-off jumper, Stewart has failed to win tip-off’s more than 42 percent of the time, with Detroit scoring just 37 percent of the time. On the other side, Mark Williams has won tips at a solid 60 percent of the time, with Charlotte converting half the time. It should be the Hornets’ opportunity to score first.

As a matter of who, Charlotte’s offense splits essentially evenly on who scores the first bucket. Detroit’s defense, however, allows nearly 30 percent of the opponent’s first baskets to come from the shooting guard position. While I am tempted to take LaMelo Ball (+490), I am taking the value in Rozier. I’ll put one unit on this bet.

Wendell Carter (+460)

I’ve gone to Carter before, and I am comfortable going to him again tonight in New Orleans.

Carter may have the second shortest odds to score first tonight, but it is still a solid value, winning tips at a 57 percent rate with the Magic converting over half the time. I’m taking a Magic player to score first against this New Orleans defense, who allows the center to score at a nearly 30 percent rate.

Offensively, Orlando goes down low early, with their center scoring their first bucket at a 30 percent rate. Even if the Pelicans do win the tip, I am not too scared of their 18th-ranked offense, especially short-handed. I’ll put one unit on this.

Otherwise, you have two tough options between Celtics-Knicks and Heat-76ers. Both Robert Williams and Julius Randle are solid at opening tips, and both squads score at a highly efficient clip. If anything, I’d lean toward Robert Williams (+850). I trust the Celtics’ offense a bit more, and it’s a solid value.

In the other game, I’d lean toward Tyler Herro (+1000). Obviously, he’s questionable, so make sure he plays, but Adebayo should win the opening tip against Embiid. Philadelphia allows the opponent’s shooting guards to score the first bucket at a 28 percent clip, and Embiid at +240 is simply too chalky for me.

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All opening tip and first basket data courtesy of NBA First Basket (@NBAFirstBasket)

Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.