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NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (1/30)

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Let’s keep 2023 going right by winning some money in first-basket bets. As always, there is a lot of variability when it comes to betting the first basket but keep in mind, these bets are to maximize your profit in the long run with some being mere lottery tickets.

Here are my favorite first-basket options for tonight’s slate.

And check out our other top picks for Monday:

View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>

Today’s Best NBA First Basket Scorer Player Prop Bets

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Jaden McDaniels (+1300)

To start with a bit of a bang I’m going with the Washington native as a pure value play. 

I cannot believe this prop is where it’s at. McDaniels usage has been steady this season and he’s scored in the double-digits quite consistently. Assuming Rudy Gobert is healthy and in the starting lineup, Minnesota wins the opening tip almost three-quarters of the time.

To me, it’s an easy Minnesota play, especially considering Sabonis’ tip win rate sitting at 36 percent. For the Timberwolves, nearly half of their first made field goals have come from the front court. With Gobert banged up and sitting at +500, I’m much more inclined to go with the value play, and plug in McDaniels instead. Despite the crazy long shot, I’m still throwing one unit on this play.  

Jeremy Sochan (+850)

For a bit less aggressive of a value, I’m going with another frontcourt piece for my second play tonight.

Sochan just dropped a 30-piece against Phoenix on Saturday, so we know he can score. Despite San Antonio’s middling offensive efficiency, Jakob Poetl should win the tip battle against Daniel Gafford, with the latter winning a mere 20 percent of tips. 

Sochan is another value play but the Spurs go to their power forward 30 percent of the time for first buckets. Looking at other players’ odds, Sochan simply jumps off the page for me. I can’t go with any Wizards players and the only other Spur I’d consider is Keldon Johnson (+500). I’m trusting the value and throwing a unit on this Sochan.           

Deandre Ayton (+300)

For the chalky play of the day, the Suns’ big man is my pick.

Ayton just seems right here. Phoenix goes to their center for nearly a third of their first buckets. Ayton is a tip-off machine, winning at a 70 percent clip with Phoenix capitalizing over half the time. I also trust the Suns’ defense to step up if they miss the first bucket or lose the tip going up against the Toronto offense. 

To go into a bit more detail, Ayton takes the first team shot roughly 28 percent of the time, scoring the game’s first basket 15 percent of the time, both team highs. There’s a reason his odds sit at +300 here, and I’m not questioning it at all, putting one unit on this play.

Last Week: 1-1 (+4U)

This Month: 2-9 (+5.5U)

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All opening tip and first basket data courtesy of NBA First Basket (@NBAFirstBasket)

Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.