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NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (11/28)

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With Thanksgiving in the rearview mirror, we can focus again on making money with some first-basket bets. There is a loaded slate tonight which means plenty of options. When identifying the first basket options, many factors come into play. I do my best to identify the best value options that actually have a chance of cashing. Keep in mind there are some long odds here, so you won’t cash too often. But in the long run, it should be a positive expected value.

Here are my favorite first-basket options for tonight’s slate.

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

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NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions

Lonnie Walker (+900)
Where the Lakers’ offense doesn’t shine, their defense does, ranking 11th in the nation. Despite a struggle on the offensive side of the ball, I trust a Lakers player here to score first.

Indiana has not had much success scoring first this season. Myles Turner has a 35 percent tip-win rate over the last two years with the Pacers scoring 39 percent of the time. Anthony Davis is questionable but a lot more successful with over a 65 percent tip-win rate.    

Davis and LeBron James are the first choices for who might score first, but their value is always over-inflated. Lonnie Walker is the choice here for me at +900, because the first bucket should be from Los Angeles. 

Fred VanVleet (+600)
Looking at first-basket data, a Toronto Raptors player is the choice for scoring first.

Cleveland scores successfully just 42 percent of the time when winning the opening tip this season. Toronto on the other hand has been successful at scoring first about 61 percent of the time.  

A guard has scored 50 percent of first baskets for Toronto this year, with Cleveland allowing guards to score first at a relatively high rate, so I feel solid about VanFleet tonight. Again, he sits at a good value with +600, and the statistics help his case.

Dejounte Murray (+600)
I’m in between Murray and Trae Young here. This is also semi-dependent on Joel Embiid’s status.

When Harrell has taken the tips for Philadelphia, he’s done an abysmal job, winning just 14 percent of the time. Even when the 76ers do take down the opening tip, they capitalize at the same rate as a coin flip.

Murray and Young are the clear go-to, high-usage guys here and Philadelphia has allowed 26 percent of opponents’ first baskets to come from the shooting guard position. Especially if Embiid is out, hammer one of the Hawks here.

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All opening tip and first basket data courtesy of NBA First Basket (@NBAFirstBasket)

Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.