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NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (2/25)

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Friday saw us go 0-3 with a close call on Klay Thompson. We move onto the NBA Saturday slate that gives us seven contests. Let’s take a look at these matchups and try to find some more First Basket plays.

And here are our other top picks for Saturday:

View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by players with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>

Saturday’s Best NBA First Basket Bets

Season to Date: 5-17-2, +2.00 units

Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons

The Raptors head south of the border to take on the Pistons in Detroit. Again, like I’ve done many times this season, I will be fading the Pistons when it comes to First Basket. The numbers continue to back this. Detroit is scoring first field goals at below a 40% rate and winning opening tips at an even lower rate. Meanwhile, Toronto is one of the better teams in the league, hovering around 60% for first field goal makes.

With a good chance to score the First Basket in this game, I like to target two different Raptors to improve my edge. The first pick is OG Anunoby. He has only started in 46 games and scored the Raptors’ first field goal in eight of them, but the matchup with Detroit is enticing. The Pistons don’t really have the defenders to lock down athletic guards, especially ones with OG’s size. This is indicated in their season stats of giving up 27% of opponents’ first field goals to shooting guards.

The other player I’m targeting is Pascal Siakam. This is a volume play where Siakam leads the Raptors in First Baskets by a wide margin and has the first team field goal in 20 of 50 starts. With the edge I like for Toronto to get the First Basket, I have to make a play on the player that scores Toronto’s first field goal in 40% of starts.

Pick: 0.25u OG Anunoby (+750) & 0.25u Pascal Siakam (+360)

Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic

The Pacers traveling to Orlando, and both teams are in striking distance to making the Play-In tournament. These are two teams I like to pick for and against when it comes to First Baskets as well. Indiana has struggled, hovering around 40% for first field goals, while Orlando has thrived in that category even though it hasn’t translated to actual wins. The Pacers have given up 27% of opponent first field goals to opposing teams’ centers, and that has me targeting a familiar face, Wendell Carter.

Carter continues to cash this prop due to the volume in which he’s putting up early shots. It has led to seven first field goals in 37 starts, and 13 first-team field goals in over one-third of this starts. The Pacers’ likelihood of giving up first field goals to bigs makes this an overall solid play for Carter, who I like even with the shorter odds.

Pick: 0.25u Wendell Carter (+420)

Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets

Both of these teams will be playing the second night of a back-to-back on Saturday. This means that starting lineups can be uncertain, but I’m going to assume anyone with First Basket lines out now is likely to start tonight.

Miami is an intriguing team to fade when it comes to First Baskets, as they only score the first field goal in 36% of games. The Hornets, meanwhile, do so in about half of their games. This small edge has me targeting the Hornets in this game.

One Hornet I am focusing on is P.J. Washington. I like Washington in this matchup because Miami gives up almost half of the opponents’ first field goals to opposing big men. With shake-ups in the Charlotte lineup due to the trade deadline, Washington stands as the most consistent big man in the lineup. In addition, Washington leads Charlotte in first-team field goals with 13 of his own. At these odds, I like the value of Washington to get it done and cash us this First Basket prop.

Pick: 0.25u P.J. Washington (+1000)

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