Navigate

NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (2/11)

by |

A tough Friday night saw these picks go 0-3-1. We move on to the last NBA Saturday slate before the All-Star break. Let’s take a look at Saturday’s games and try to find some First Basket winners.

Season to Date: 2-13-2, -0.75 units

And here are our other top picks for Saturday:

Get ready for the big game with our Super Bowl LVII Betting Guide >>

Today’s Best First Basket Scorer Bets

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Miami Heat at Orlando Magic

The matchup of Florida’s two teams takes place in Orlando on Saturday night. I highlighted this matchup a few weeks ago because I like the edge the Magic have in First Baskets. With Adebayo and Carter taking the opening tip, there is very little edge for a tip-off win as both sit around 60%, but Miami struggles mightily to score first. Again, I’m going to target Orlando.

Miami gives up 48% of their first field goals to opposing big men which feeds well into the Magic strength. Both Wendell Carter and Paolo Banchero have done really well with first field goals, scoring the first field goal in 23 of Orlando’s 56 games, 41%. Both have contributed over 10 of these themselves.

It is a really good matchup for the Magic bigs against a team like Miami that doesn’t score a lot of First Baskets. I’m going to play both Carter and Banchero on Saturday with a good chance that one of them pulls through.

Pick: 0.25u Wendell Carter Jr. (+550) & 0.25u Paolo Banchero (+600)

Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards

It will be the second night of a back-to-back for Indiana. I faded the Pacers on Friday due to a poor first field goal percentage and will do so again as they take on a Wizards team that is one of the best at cashing First Baskets in the league.

I highlighted this yesterday, Indiana has given up a ton of first field goals to opposing bigs and Kristaps Porzingis fills this role for Washington. It helps too that Porzingis has been one of the best First Basket prop scorers since joining Washington last year. He has cashed a first field goal eight times this season already, and has Washington’s first field goal in 14 contests, trailing only Bradley Beal.

This is a perfect situation of strength versus weakness. The weakness of Indiana giving up first field goals to bigs and Porzingis’s ability to cash in on First Basket opportunities. The matchup entices me to take Porzingis again for Saturday’s contest.

Pick: 0.25u Kristaps Porzingis (+470)

Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers

Thursday’s trade deadline saw a handful of stars move teams and shifted expectations for many franchises. One team that didn’t move much was Cleveland, that is because they made their big splash in the offseason when they acquired Donovan Mitchell. I’m going to target him with a play here on Saturday.

Mitchell leads all Cavaliers with 14 first team field goals and 10 first field goals leading to First Baskets. Being the leading scorer for Cleveland he gets a bunch of opportunities to score early and often. Chicago doesn’t have a weakness against any one position for first field goals, but they struggle to win tip-offs with Vucevic at center. The strength of Mitchell’s ability and Cleveland’s likelihood to win the opening tip is what makes this a play for me on Saturday.

Pick: 0.25u Donovan Mitchell (+430)

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread â€” to learn more.

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts