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NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (2/4)

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Friday night saw us miss out on all three plays. We move onto a Saturday slate that features nice games. Let’s take a look and try to find some First Basket prop winners.

Note: Last Saturday (1/28) the Ben Simmons play was voided due to a DNP. Going forward I will grade DNPs as a push for record keeping sake.

Season to Date: 2-7-1, +0.75 units

And check out our other top picks for all of Saturday’s betting action:

View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by players with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>

Saturdays Best First Basket Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Phoenix Suns at Detroit Pistons

Yesterday I targeted Terry Rozier against Detroit for matchup reasons. He didn’t pull through for us, but Detroit has another matchup on Saturday that is even more intriguing.

Detroit’s defense against guards continues to struggle, even without a First Basket, Rozier and Lonzo Ball scored over twenty points each. Phoenix has their own guards that are more than capable of scoring and for this reason I’m targeting Mikal Bridges.

Bridges leads all Suns players with first field goals scored on the season. He’s met the mark eight times on the season cashing a First Basket prop and he’s scored the first field goal for Phoenix in 12 of 53 starts. Against a team like Detroit that gives up first field goals to shooting guards at a clip of over 25%, Bridges is a really solid play for First Basket in this game.

Pick: 0.25u Mikal Bridges (+500)

Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks

A few weeks ago when these teams faced off I took Giannis Antetokounmpo to get a First Basket. He didn’t come through on that night, but the logic behind the pick still stands in this matchup.

Miami gives up 58% of their opponents’ first field goals to opposing big men. Giannis is one of those rare big men that is capable of running the offense on his own, creating a huge matchup problem. He’s been capable of scoring a first field goal in seven games this year and scored Milwaukee’s first field goal in nine even while missing some time this season.

Given Milwaukee is a well above average First Basket team and Miami is one of the worst, the play on Giannis is even stronger. This is my favorite play for Saturday.

Pick: 0.25u Giannis Antetokounmpo (+350)

Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors

The Warriors return home after a short road trip to host the Mavericks on national television on Saturday night. All eyes were going to be on the superstar matchup of Luka Doncic and Steph Curry, but unfortunately, Doncic has already been ruled out. Regardless, I’m going to be focused on First Basket plays.

The Warriors have been exceptional at cashing First Basket props on the year. They’ve scored the first field goal in 63.5% of games this season. This is a massive edge they have over Mavericks players considering Dallas has scored the first field goal in only 34% of games which correlates with a poor opening tip winning percentage.

Dallas has had an Achilles’ heel in giving up first field goals to big men, notably opposing teams’ centers and power forwards. The Warriors are interesting because they can implement a smaller lineup which has included Andrew Wiggins playing a traditional power forward spot. Given this unique matchup, he is a player I am targeting.

Wiggins is already arguably the best Warrior to target in any matchup. In only 32 starts on the year, Wiggins has scored the first team field goal in 11 games. This number is more than a one-off trend given the kind of scorers he starts alongside on a nightly basis. In this matchup with Dallas on Saturday night he is a must-play.

Pick: 0.25u Andrew Wiggins (+500)

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