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NBA First Basket Scorer Prop Bet Picks & Predictions: Friday (4/7)

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The final weekend of the NBA regular season is upon us. For many bettors this can be a difficult time as lineups are constantly in flux. Some teams are still fighting for certain seedings while others are content on resting key players before the playoffs. I’ll navigate the board with the current available information to find some First Basket plays.

Season to Date: 12-36-5, +4.63 units

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Friday’s Best First Basket Player Prop Bets

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Philadelphia 76ers at Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks will host the 76ers who are on the second night of a road back-to-back. With Philadelphia having clinched the 3-seed in the East already, I expect many of the normal starters to sit. For Atlanta, Play-In positioning is still in play so their normal starters could all play.

Season-long data can be deceiving if Philadelphia’s normal starters sit, but regardless Dejounte Murray is a solid pick. The 76ers have given up more first field goals to opposing shooting guards than other position. This plays right into Atlanta’s strength as Murray leads Atlanta in First Baskets on the season.

Murray has cashed this prop in one of the three times Atlanta succeeded in scoring the first points over the last ten games. It’s a play that is much stronger against Philadelphia reserves, but the overall season numbers give Murray a strong chance regardless.

Pick: 0.25u on Dejounte Murray (+650)

Memphis Grizzlies at Milwaukee Bucks

The Grizzlies and Bucks will square off Friday after the Bucks cemented the 1-seed in the East earlier in the week. The Bucks are expected to sit their stars, while Memphis could start some or all of theirs. I’m going to assume Memphis is starting their normal lineup so I’ll target a Grizzly matchup here.

Jaren Jackson Jr. should have a very favorable matchup against a Buck second-unit frontcourt. Jackson has exploded of late for this prop. In the last 10 Memphis games, Jackson has scored the first field goal for Memphis four times, leading to two First Basket cashes. His recent explosion has tied him with Ja Morant for the team lead in both categories.

Milwaukee is content with just getting through this weekend healthy. Memphis is still looking to secure that 2-seed in the West and should be playing their full lineup. I like Jackson to score a First Basket and cash another on the season.

Pick: 0.25u on Jaren Jackson Jr. (+475)

Chicago Bulls at Dallas Mavericks

This is one of the spots on the schedule where both teams are expected to play their typical lineups. Based on season-long data, there is one matchup that sticks out like a sore thumb.

Dallas has had a very soft spot on defense in giving up first field goals to opposing centers. Over one-third of the games Dallas has played this season have resulted in an opposing center scoring a first field goal. This is a welcome sight for Nikola Vucevic. He’s been a stalwart in the First Basket prop sphere. He leads the Bulls in first team field goals, nearly doubling the next highest Bull.

This is a really strong matchup for Vucevic to score against a weak Dallas frontcourt defense. If he’s in the starting lineup, he’s a must-play for First Basket on Friday night.

Pick: 0.25 on Nikola Vucevic (+500)

Also take a look at our other best bets for Friday:


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