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NBA First Basket Scorer Prop Bet Picks & Predictions: Friday (2/10)

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A tough end to last week saw us go 0-for on both Friday and Saturday, but that’s often how taking a volatile prop as First Basket goes. We’ll push forward and take a look at the Friday games to get back on a winning streak

  • Season to Date: 2-10-1, 0.00 units

And here are our other top picks for Friday:

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Friday’s Best NBA First Basket Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

San Antonio Spurs at Detroit Pistons

The Spurs continue a road trip after stops in Chicago and Toronto with a trip to Detroit on Friday night. Fading the Pistons is something I’ve done often with my plays, and for good reason. The Pistons have one of the worst defenses in the league by adjusted defensive rating. In addition, they’re a below-average opening tip-winning team with Jalen Duren jumping. All of this adds up to a 36.4% first field goal win rate.

The favorable matchup with Detroit has me targeting two different Spurs. Detroit has struggled to defend shooting guards and centers, who are scoring the first field goal at around 25% and 22% against Detroit, respectively. For this reason, I’m targeting Keldon Johnson and Zach Collins for First Basket.

Johnson and recently traded Jakob Poeltl scored the first team field goal ten times on the season, equating to over 36% of the first team field goals for the Spurs. With Collins in line to take on Poeltl’s role, I’m going to play the numbers here and sprinkle a play on both Johnson and Collins.

Pick: 0.25u on Keldon Johnson (+450) & 0.25u on Zach Collins (+650)

Phoenix Suns at Indiana Pacers

The Suns travel to Indiana in an ultimate battle of First Basket strength against First Basket weakness. With Deandre Ayton at center court, the Suns are winning over 60% of their tips and subsequently scoring the first field goal in over 50% of games. The Pacers are on the other end of the spectrum with less than a 40% success rate at scoring the first field goal.

One glaring defensive weakness when it comes to First Baskets is the center position. Indiana is giving up 27% of first field goals to opposing centers, by far the most of any position. This plays right into Phoenix’s strength with Deandre Ayton.

Ayton leads the team in first team field goals and trails only recently traded Mikal Bridges in first game field goals. The difference between first team field goals and first game field goals is partially a product of luck. Friday night’s lineup is up in the air with the blockbuster trade to add Kevin Durant, but Ayton should still be in play, so I feel really good about playing him in this spot against a team that struggles to prevent centers from scoring early.

Pick: 0.25u on Deandre Ayton (+300)

Milwaukee Bucks at Los Angeles Clippers

The Bucks travel to LA to take on the Clippers. It’s a matchup that could loom much larger if they play in the playoffs, but it will be just another regular-season game with star power on a Friday night.

The Clippers have been a Jekyll and Hyde team, depending on who is in the lineup. That makes them a tough team to handicap on a nightly basis, but not so much on First Basket. Ivica Zubac has been about league average on the tip, and as a team, the Clippers have been about league average at scoring first field goals. The Bucks, however, have been much better. This edge is enough for me to target a Milwaukee player for First Basket.

That edge also tells me to target Brook Lopez. Due to all kinds of missed time, the Bucks have a really balanced first field goal profile. Brook Lopez has as many First Basket prop wins as guys like Jrue Holiday and Giannis Antetokounmpo. So on his own, Lopez is a strong play. Add in the fact that the Clippers allow first field goals to opponent centers in nearly a quarter of their games, and this play becomes even more attractive.

Pick: 0.25u on Brook Lopez (+750)

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