Navigate

NBA First Basket Scorer Prop Bet Picks & Predictions: Friday (1/20)

by |

Let’s take a look at the Friday NBA slate and find some First Basket prop winners.

Check out our other top picks for Friday:

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Today’s Best NBA First Basket Scorer Player Prop Bets

Here are my favorite plays for Friday’s loaded NBA slate.

Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks

Over the course of the season, Miami has been one of the least successful teams in cashing First Basket props. In the last few games, however, they’ve been on a bit of a hot streak. They’ve scored the first field goal in four of their last five games and they’ll look to stay hot early again on the road against Dallas.

One player I’m targeting here is Bam Adebayo. Dallas loves to give up first field goals to centers, doing so in 36% of their games on the season. Adebayo creates a tough matchup for a lot of teams, Dallas especially as they don’t really play a traditional paint-protecting big man. 

The numbers for Miami as well as their matchup with Dallas point to Adebayo as the play. It is tough to ignore those stats. Even though he isn’t a particularly high-priced pick, he’s the best play for First Basket in this matchup.

Pick: Bam Adebayo (+440)

Brooklyn Nets at Utah Jazz

This matchup creates one of the starkest mismatches as far as first field goal scores on the season. Brooklyn has scored the first field goal in over 60% of their games on the season while Utah sits under 30%. The numbers would strongly suggest that a Brooklyn player will record the First Basket on Friday night.

There are two players I’m looking at here. The first is Nic Claxton. He’s been one of the stronger First Basket prop cashiers in Brooklyn and he’s right up there with Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons as far as recording first field goals in the last ten Nets’ games. Another reason Claxton is so attractive here is that Utah gives up 38% of their first field goals to centers. I’m going to ride this trend and sprinkle some on Claxton.

Another play I like here is Ben Simmons. In addition to the first field goals they give up to centers, the Jazz give up another 36% of their first field goals to forwards. Simmons is really only a threat to score near the basket and that is where the Jazz struggle the most in these situations. The Nets like to get Simmons going early because a strong offensive showing from him just makes this team all that much more dangerous. He is worth a play as well.

Pick: Nic Claxton (+800) & Ben Simmons (+700)

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners â€” or head to more advanced strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread â€” to learn more.

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts