NBA Futures: Best Bets to Win the Eastern Conference (2020)
The Eastern Conference semifinals began on Sunday and with the top-four seeds advancing, precisely what we expected. The Milwaukee Bucks lead the way to win the conference and represent the East in the NBA Finals, but they’re not number one on my list after their disappointing series with Orlando.
Now that seedings are official for the semifinals, FanDuel has posted lines on the series and futures to win the East.
Let’s take a look at who to bet on in the East. And check out our consensus odds to win the Eastern Conference.
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Boston Celtics (+160)
The Boston Celtics ran through the Philadelphia 76ers in round one, sweeping them without Ben Simmons playing and Gordon Hayward out for half the series. They opened up the semifinals with a smackdown in Toronto and then a close win in Game 2, and right now, Jayson Tatum is one of the three best players in the Eastern Conference. Although they’re not the favorites, they’re my favorite to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals after one round.
Strengths
In the postseason, through five games, Boston is allowing the fewest points per game (99.2), the fewest field goals made per game(45.5), and the sixth-fewest rebounds per game (33.6). Defensively, they handled Philadelphia every game in the first-round and pounded Toronto in Game 1, 112-94. They’ve held the Raptors to their fourth-lowest points per game total of any team (105.3), and I can’t forget about the play of Kemba Walker.
In the first Eastern Conference article, I noted how Walker would have to step up in the scoring department, and with Gordon Hayward out, he’s done just that. When Hayward comes back, this team becomes a championship squad, but Marcus Smart fills his role perfectly until then.
Weaknesses
Boston hasn’t shown any weakness through five games, going 5-0. However, picking apart the Celtics, the only visual negatives thus far are ranked 10 out of 16 teams in three-pointers made per game (13.2) and 13th in assists (20.2). Hayward was instrumental to the passing game, and subbing him out for Smart has impacted the assist and three-point numbers.
Overall, both aren’t worrisome because Boston has still knocked down more threes than their opponents in four-of-five games. However, Toronto, Milwaukee, and Miami are all top-six in the regular-season for three-pointers made per game.
The Verdict
I took a wager on Boston to win the East at +700 before the bubble and to meet the Lakers in the NBA Finals at +1900, and I feel even better about it after the smackdown on Toronto. Of course, there are still two wins to go, but a matchup with Miami or Milwaukee are both winnable.
With Walker’s play improved, plus Jaylen Brown and Tatum on a scoring and rebounding tear, Boston is looking lethal and championship-worthy.
Milwaukee Bucks (+125)
The Bucks bounced back from an embarrassing loss to the Magic in Game 1 by winning four-straight by double-digits. Giannis was on fire, leading the team in scoring and rebounding for five-straight and in assists two-of-five. As the favorites and owning the NBA’s best record, it’s hard not to back them, but they have had minor issues that could keep them from their first NBA Finals appearance since 1974.
Strengths
The Bucks scored at least 110 points in all five versus the Magic and held them to 107 or fewer in the final four games. Milwaukee can hang with any squad when it comes to shooting. They’re making the fifth-most triples in the postseason (15.8) and sixth-most points (116.2). The most impressive factor has been their ability to share the rock and set up one another on offense.
They’re second in assists (27.4) during the postseason, compared to sixth in the regular-season (25.9). That team passing ability, combined with their number one ranked rebounds per game in the regular-season and postseason, makes them as dangerous as any team night in and night out.
Weaknesses
The Bucks don’t have many weaknesses, but two areas have been a bit of concern already. Milwaukee’s averaging the most turnovers in the postseason with 16.6 per game and allowing opponents to hit 37.7% from beyond the arc (9th).
At one point in the Magic series, the Bucks were allowing over 51 three-pointers per game, but closing out, they’ve dropped that number drastically to 39.8 attempts. They’re already working on their problems, but versus a Miami Heat team that causes 15.3 turnovers (5th) in the postseason, they could be in for a fight.
The Verdict
The Bucks deserve to be the favorites out of the four-game field, but I’m not convinced they’re undoubtedly better than Boston or Toronto. Milwaukee was the only team in the East not to pull off the sweep, and being the No. 1 seed with no homecourt advantage isn’t helping their cause.
Outside of Giannis and Brook Lopez, there hasn’t been much scoring consistency from the rest of the Bucks. A tough defensive squad like Miami will require more than 2-3 scorers to beat them, and as of right now, I would side with the Heat having far more capable scorers than the Bucks through one round.
Miami Heat (+390)
This pick is probably a surprise to most as Toronto could easily be here, but how could I put them on the list with Boston as my number one? Not to hate on Toronto, but Miami is looking primed for a battle with Milwaukee, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Heat takes the Bucks to six or seven games.
Miami’s all-around stacked with talent, from three-point range to the interior, they have been a consistent offensive unit, and on the defensive end, they’re even more dangerous.
Strengths
In the regular-season, Miami ranked third, allowing 42.5 total rebounds per game to their opponents, and in the postseason, they rank first at 36.5. Miami finished seventh or better in field goals, field goal attempts, and field goal percentage during the regular-season and top-eight in the postseason.
The defense is also forcing 15.3 turnovers per game (5th) and racking up 8.8 steals per game (3rd) in the playoffs. They’re lockdown, only allowing 100.8 points per game in the playoffs (2nd), and if the three-ball is falling, they’re a dangerous squad that’s capable of upsetting Milwaukee. They’ve averaged 13.4 triples in the regular-season (6th) and 13.0 in the postseason (11th), and if they increase those numbers in the semifinals, Miami could be in business.
Weaknesses
Miami didn’t show any weaknesses versus the Pacers, sweeping them in four games, but they did post the second-fewest field goals per game (80.8). The Heat played a much slower pace with the Pacers, and the scores in the series reflected that. Versus Milwaukee, those attempts will undoubtedly have to rise, especially since the Bucks averaged 88.0 per game with one extra outing. The Bucks averaged an NBA-best 118.7 points per game in the regular season, and the Heat finished 15th with 112.0.
The Verdict
Miami will be an interesting watch versus Milwaukee, but they’ve beaten them two out of three times during the regular season, so it’s possible for an upset. At +800, Miami is a why not bet if you have some extra cash, and if they beat Milwaukee, those odds are drastically dropping.
The Heat have winning records versus the Bucks and Raptors this season, but are 1-2 versus the Celtics. Any of their opponents would be an exciting matchup, but sadly, Miami is a young squad with a majority of their role players all being drafted in 2017 or later. Overall, Miami is a little too young for me to back them to make the NBA Finals.
A series upset over the Bucks at +290 isn’t enough for me, so I placed small wagers on the Heat to win in six (+1100) and seven (+800). With no homecourt, a Heat upset could be worth a wager.
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Vaughn Dalzell is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Vaughn, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @VaughnDalzell.