NBA Futures: Best Bets to Win the Eastern Conference (2020)
The Eastern Conference Finals begins on Tuesday, September 15, with the No. 5 Miami Heat versus the No. 3 Boston Celtics. Not exactly what we all expected. An overall better Heat team dismissed the Milwaukee Bucks, and the Celtics went to Game 7, barely surviving after a 2-0 start to the series.
Now that seedings are official for the ECF, sportsbooks have posted lines on the series and futures to win the East.
Let’s take a look at each team’s strengths and weaknesses headed into the best of seven series and who I’m betting on. And check out our consensus odds to win the Eastern Conference.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Boston Celtics (-136)
The Boston Celtics were thinking of a complete four-game sweep over the Raptors before OG Anunoby hit a three-pointer at the buzzer in Game 3. Anunoby’s shot was about as shocking as the Kawhi Leonard’s game-winner versus the 76ers in 2019, but this time, the game-winner wasn’t too advance.
Boston is hoping they get Gordon Hayward back in time for this series or the NBA Finals, and he’s started practicing, which is a positive sign. Until then, Marcus Smart remains in the starting lineup as the entire Boston Celtics roster chases their first NBA Finals appearance together.
The Celtics beat the Heat two out of three games this season with Miami winning the latest meeting, so there’s a bit of contrast to this series, making it that much more entertaining as we prep for Game 1.
Strengths
In the Celtics two wins over the Heat, they held them to a combined 193 total points (96.5 pg) and gave Miami problems from deep. In the Heat’s 109-101 loss, they shot 9-of-37 (24.3 percent), and 14-of-38 (36.8 percent) from three-point land in their 112-93 loss. Boston leads the postseason with 30.5 percent allowed from deep and 40.5 percent from the field.
On top of their stellar defense, the Celtics have a trio of scorers that can drop 20 on any given night. Jayston Tatum and Kemba Walker have been the leaders, while Jaylen Brown has shown flashes of serious potential. The three of them match up well with any of the remaining team’s best three players, and this is a hungry and talented group when the game is on the line.
Weaknesses
Boston has a problem allowing opponents to get to the charity stripe too often. The Celtics allowed 24.2 free-throw attempts per game, the sixth-most of 16 playoff teams. During the regular season, that number was 24.6 and ranked 19th among 30 squads.
The Heat are knocking down 82.0 percent of their free-throws as a team, the second-most in the postseason. They’re attempting 23.3 makes and allowing 28.4 attempts, also the second-most. That could be the Achilles heel of the Celtics over the course over the ECF.
The Verdict
I took a pre-bubble bet on Lakers versus Celtics at +1900 to meet in the NBA Finals and at +700 to win the East, so that’s where my money is, but a bet on Miami isn’t a crazy one. I believe Boston is genuinely the better overall team, but Miami is red-hot right now and can contend with almost anyone after an 8-1 start to the postseason.
Brad Stevens has never been to the NBA Finals and has never coached in the Eastern Conference Finals, so this will be the biggest stage for him and all of his players. Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Marcus Smart have all played tremendous in the first two rounds, but the ECF will show us what the Boston Celtics are made of.
The Heat have the coaching experience advantage for this moment and key players who have already gained this experience, such as Andre Iguodala. Still, as I said earlier, I think the Celtics are the better overall team; they just have to cool down the Heat.
Miami Heat (+110)
The Miami Heat have played themselves into the Eastern Conference Finals, and man, am I impressed. Being a Chicago Bulls fan, I love me some Jimmy Butler, and the fact that he took this Heat roster to the next level, sweeping the Indiana Pacers and nearly doing the same to the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks, well should put everyone on notice.
The Heat haven’t made the NBA Finals since 2014, when Chris Bosh, LeBron James, and Dwyane Wade were on the squad. No LeBron, no Kawhi, no top seed in the East, no wonder the Miami Heat are the favorites representing the East in the NBA Finals.
Strengths
A few players set the tone early for Miami, Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro, to name a few. Butler set a playoff-high of 40 points in Game 1 versus the Bucks. Dragic averaged 22.8 points and 19.8 points in the first and second rounds of the postseason. Adebayo averaged 17.2 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 4.0 assists in the five games versus the Bucks. Herro scored double-digits in 16-straight games and 16-of-18 since entering the bubble.
The Heat played well on both sides of the ball. They’ve allowed 103.7 points per game (2nd) in the postseason and are scoring 112.1 points per game (6th). Miami is hitting at s 38 percent clip from three (3rd) in the playoffs and holding opponents to 34.8 percent from deep (6th), two essential parts of success in today’s NBA.
Miami is even allowing the second-fewest rebounds per game (40.1) and the fourth-fewest field-goal attempts per game (83.6) in the postseason. They’re playing their defensive brand of basketball with three-pointers, and aggressive takes to the basket. They’re 8-1 through the playoffs, an NBA-best for a reason.
Weaknesses
Miami doesn’t have many flaws at this point. They’ve proven they can do everything they’re asked of and are capable of molding offensively and defensively to their opponent’s tendencies. If Dragic or Adebayo goes quiet, this Heat team may have a more difficult road ahead of them versus Boston than Milwaukee.
Miami lost to Boston two out of three times this year, more than any other team from the No. 3 seed to the top. If there was one team that could give Miami a run for their money this season, it’s Boston. Neither team has scored more than 112 points in the three meetings this season, so scoring might be hard to come by, especially for Miami since they average 102 points per game.
The Verdict
Miami arguably deserves to be the betting favorite over Boston for the Eastern Conference Finals, but those two regular-season losses come into factor. The Heat lost to the first two meetings of the season versus the Celtics and won their latest meeting, a rescheduled game inside the bubble.
That was the real Miami Heat team, the focused and motivated Heat team, the same one we will see versus Boston starting Tuesday. This Game 1 will be exciting, and we’ve seen Jimmy Butler go crazy for 28 and 40 points his last Game 1’s, so expect him to try and grab another 1-0 lead, this time for a chance at his first NBA Finals appearance.
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Vaughn Dalzell is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Vaughn, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @VaughnDalzell.