NBA Futures: Best Bets to Win the Western Conference (2020)
The Western Conference Finals begins on Friday, September 18, with the No. 1 L.A. Lakers versus the No. 3 Denver Nuggets. Not exactly what we all expected. The Lakers rolled over the Blazers and Rockets, while the Nuggets came back from down 3-1, twice.
Now that seedings are official for the WCF, sportsbooks have posted lines on the series and futures to win the West. The Lakers are -625 favorites, so unless you’re betting on Denver outright, this series isn’t profitable.
Let’s take a look at each team’s strengths and weaknesses headed into the best of seven series and who I’m betting on. And check out our consensus odds to win the Eastern Conference.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Los Angles Lakers (-625)
The Los Angeles Lakers twice lost the first game of the series, then won four-straight games on their way to the Western Conference Finals. LeBron James and Anthony Davis have both played at an MVP level since entering the postseason. They became the first duo in 13 years to both be named to the All-NBA First Team. That marked LeBron’s 16th selection, now most of all-time, after being tied with Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. His 13th First Team selection is also the most of all-time.
Besides the superstar pair, the Lakers have relied on a rotation of Alex Caruso, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green, Kyle Kuzma, Markieff Morris, and Rajon Rondo the rest of the way. It’s impressive that LeBron can take a team of those six role players to the WCF, yet here they are, four wins away from his ninth NBA Finals in 10 years after missing the postseason entirely in 2018-19.
Strengths
The Lakers’ defense was one of the best all season long, but they’ve really clamped down in the postseason. The first round versus Portland, L.A. held them to 100 or fewer in the first two games, but allowed 115.0 over the next three, while averaging 127.3 points per game themselves. In the semifinals versus the Rockets, Houston never scored more than 109 and had 102 or less in four-of-five games.
They’re allowing the third-fewest amount of points in the paint (36.6) despite playing 10 games and own the third-best defensive net rating (105.4). On offense, the Lakers have averaged 114.1 points per game in the postseason, the second-most to Dallas’ 117.0. The Lakers shoot 49.6% as a team from inside the three-point line, the best percentage in the postseason, carrying over from their regular season-best 48.0%.
They can win a championship inside the arc, but if they’re forced outside of it, well…
Weaknesses
The kryptonite of this team is their three-point shooting. The Lakers are hitting 35.9% from three in the postseason, second last out of the four remaining teams, and 11th overall. Their attempting 33.7 triples per game and making 12.1, both 11-of-16 overall. The free-throw shooting has been just as bad, going 72.7% as a team in the playoffs.
The Lakers are making 17.3 free-throws per game, ninth-most on 24.5 attempts, the sixth-most, but they might have the advantage here. Denver, a small-market and unpopular mass market of a team, has attempted the least amount of free-throws of any team in the postseason at 19.1 per game. They’ve battled back from 3-1 in two series now and are last in free-throws, an interesting stat that could impact this series moving forward. The Lakers are 100-percent going to get more calls than the Nuggets in the series, so defense and three-point shooting will be the two keys for the Lake Show.
The Verdict
There’s no value in betting the Lakers straight-up in this series at -625. L.A. is the obvious choice to win the series, and exiting LeBron James in the playoffs is no simple task; ask the Blazers or Rockets after Game 1. The best bet is to take the Lakers to win the series in five (+200) or six (+350) games.
I think Denver’s magical run ends here, and their team is similar to the 2018-19 Portland team that made the WCF before losing to Golden State. With the Warriors out, the Lakers are here to intervene, and I see a familiar outcome to the Warrior’s 4-0 sweep over the Blazers. I’ll give Denver one game in the series, but the 4-0 sweep is the Lakers’ second-best return on invest at +350 to winning 4-3 at +550.
Denver Nuggets (+470)
The Denver Nuggets surprised everyone and made, plus took away a ton of money from people. Down 3-1 twice in both rounds, they scrapped their way back, and might I add, the series comeback over the Clippers was insane. Denver went on runs of 17-0 and 19-0 in Games 5 and 6 to storm back and do the unexpected, again.
At +470, or an exact series bet of +1000 or more starting at a 4-3 win in favor of Denver, it is an excellent return on investment. The value is decent, and if they win Game 1, which the Lakers have failed to do twice, this line will shoot up to +300 or worse for bettors.
Don’t count the Nuggets out entirely. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray have their own 1-2 punch with a ton of role players. This could be a buzzer to buzzer fight of a series, and for Denver, it’s now or never. With the Warriors reloading, the Grizzlies, Mavericks, and Pelicans on the upswing, and a ton of Western Conference talent in general, it has to be a now or never mentality for the Nuggets.
Strengths
Overall, Denver has arguably been the best all-around shooting team in the postseason. They’re shooting 46.5% from the field in the postseason, fifth-overall, and second-highest in the remaining field to the Lakers. Denver is also hitting the three-ball at the second-highest mark (39.1%) on 34.1 attempts per game (11/16). The Nuggets are also tied with the Heat for the second-best free-throw percentage (81.3%) in the playoffs despite Denver only attempting 19.1 per game (last).
The Nuggets are known for their defense, and they’ve supplied plenty of that in the playoffs. The Nuggets held the Clippers to 107 points or less in all seven games of the semifinals. Versus Utah, they struggled but held them to 107 or fewer in the last three games, all victories. Out of the remaining teams, Denver ranks first in opponent field goal attempts per game (82.5), leading to their 108.3 points per game allowed mark.
Weaknesses
With all of that great defense, Denver is allowing 44.4 points in the paint, the 13th-most of the playoff field, and the most of the four remaining teams. That’s a significant concern against a LeBron and Anthony Davis led-team that averages 49.6 points in the paint, the most in the league.
The Lakers shoot the highest field-goal percentage (48.0%) and own the highest offensive rating (114.4) of the playoffs’ remaining teams. Denver will have to protect the paint and force three-pointers, or they won’t stand a chance in this series. The Nuggets have the 11th ranked defensive net rating (114.0) in the postseason, while the Celtics, Heat, and Lakers are all top four.
We will see how much defense Denver can really play against this Lakers team and if another dramatic series comeback will be brewing at some point.
The Verdict
It’s the NBA world and LeBron stans against Denver, and rightfully so. Not many people want to see the Nuggets in the NBA Finals, and we have a chance to see a classic Lakers versus Celtics matchup for the first time since 2010, or LeBron versus his former Miami Heat team.
I am betting Lakers in five, fading the Nuggets and their postseason run, but that doesn’t mean you necessarily should. Betting a Denver +470 in a straight-up series win is a great return on investment, and if you grabbed them at winning in six (+1200) or seven (+1000), you could make a serious profit. Hedging with any of those is a good idea if you’re all in on the Lakers’ first NBA Finals appearance since 2008-09 like myself and most of the world.
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Vaughn Dalzell is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Vaughn, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @VaughnDalzell.