NBA Futures Betting: Best Longshot Division Winners
The NBA’s exhibition games began on Friday, Dec. 11, with the regular-season slate tipping off on the 22nd with the Golden State Warriors at Brooklyn Nets and the L.A. Clippers vs. the L.A. Lakers. A powerful and exciting slate on TNT is just the welcome back we needed, and five games on Christmas will follow it up.
The NBA is coming back dramatically after a short layoff, and you’re running out of time for your futures bets! The goal of every future bet is to make a ton of money doing so with as little capital as possible. With that being said, if one of these division winner bets hits, it doesn’t matter what happens with the other two.
On BettingPros futures consensus, you can see the best lines on these teams and any others. In this article, all lines are available on FanDuel. Let’s get down to business and keep an open mind.
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New Orleans Pelicans To Win the Southwest Division (+500)
This is my favorite bet out of the bunch. Sure, the Dallas Mavericks deserve to be the favorites based on Luka Doncic’s upside, but are the Mavericks a completely better team than the Pelicans? I’m not so sure. Of course, I have to mention Houston, and if James Harden stays for the season, +480 odds is the best you will get on the Rockets all year. Both teams lost key contributors to their respective teams, and while New Orleans did too, they also added some impactful talent.
New Orleans is still developing chemistry, as they only played half a season with prized 2019 No. 1 overall pick Zion Williamson. The Pelicans finished 13-15 with Zion in the lineup and 30-42 on the season overall. New Orleans had a shot at the postseason, but after playing 12 games of 30 minutes or more and eight-straight to end the regular season, Alvin Gentry opted to give Williamson 27 minutes or less in all the bubble contests. The tanking effort by the Pelicans clarified that they understood it wasn’t their time, and they instead focused on developing for 2020-21.
New Orleans’ offseason involved a four-team trade centered around acquiring Thunder center Steven Adams and Bucks point guard Eric Bledsoe. After a few seasons of rumors, the Pelicans finally traded Jrue Holiday and added two future first-round draft picks from Milwaukee and the right to swap two additional first-round picks with the Bucks. New Orleans also sent the draft rights to No. 60 overall pick Sam Merrill and two second-round selections.
New Orleans also added No. 13 overall selection Kira Lewis Jr. from Alabama and drafted three players in the second round, but they ended up trading them all away. Lewis Jr. will be another talented youngster in a crowded backcourt with Bledsoe, Lonzo Ball, Lewis Jr, JJ Redick, Nickeil Walker-Alexander, and Josh Hart. They have tons of young talent, and at the forward positions, a combination of Zion and Brandon Ingram is lethal. Brandon Ingram won Most Improved Player last season and finished with 23.8 points (14th), 6.1 rebounds (57th), 4.2 assists (48th), and an 18.88 Player Efficiency Rating (49th).
Both Zion and Ingram are mismatches and a half for their counterparts, and the center duo of Adams and Jaxson Hayes will be a nice change of pace for the Pelicans. How many minutes are distributed to the bench and whether or not the Ball-Bledsoe guard tandem works out will be important to the Pelicans’ success. Bledsoe disappeared in the semifinals against the Heat, as he shot 32% from the field and went a combined 4-of-21 (19%) in Games 3 and 5. If Bledsoe and Ball have poor shooting nights, the Pelicans could suffer, but if they played at the second-fastest pace in the league again (106.3), they could surpass the 118.1 points per game when Zion returned, ranking third in the league behind Portland and Atlanta.
My bold prediction is that New Orleans will win the division within the next two seasons if James Harden is out of the division. Another reason to back New Orleans is that Kristaps Porzingis has been incredibly injury-prone, and if he misses time this season, Doncic may have too much on his hands to handle. New Orleans is a young squad with talent deep into the bench, and if they have a 72-game season with Zion healthy, they’re definitely worth the gamble.
Atlanta Hawks To Win the Southeast Division (+600)
The Atlanta Hawks are the runner-up in terms of odds to the Miami Heat to win the Southeast division. The Heat shocked everyone last season and made a run to the NBA Finals before losing to the Los Angeles Lakers. There’s a chance that Miami could have an NBA Finals hangover, but it’s really a two-team race unless you’re backing the Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal duo in Washington at +950 odds.
Atlanta’s roster is centered around Trae Young, and it’s loaded with young talent. Picking the most talented group on this roster is no easy task. Along with Young, the Hawks have Kevin Huerter and newly acquired additions Kris Dunn from the Bulls and Bogdan Bogdanovic from the Kings. The forwards are made up of Cam Reddish, DeAndre Hunter, and Danilo Gallinari from the Thunder, but I like their centers the most. Clint Capela will be unleashed in Atlanta alongside John Collins, with rookie Onyeke Onkoungwu and second-year Bruno Fernando waiting in the wing.
Atlanta continues building its roster as one of the league’s premier squads from beyond the arc. They made the 16th-most triples per game (12.0) last season on the eighth-most attempts (36.1) while ranking 22nd in rebounds per game (43.3). From Jan. 22nd onward, Atlanta finished 10th in the league with 44.8 rebounds per game, a significant +8.7 difference. Atlanta finished with 111.8 points per game (17th) but again, from Jan. 22 on, the Hawks finished second in points per game with 119.3 per game in the last 23 contests.
Despite those impressive numbers, Atlanta finished with 20 wins last season, the fourth-fewest in the league and only ahead of Cleveland, Golden State, and Minnesota. If there was one team that missed the playoffs last year that I would love to see make it this season, it’s Atlanta. Llyod Pierce is quietly putting together a solid team, and while Atlanta could potentially double their wins from a season ago, the Hawks could go the NBA’s route of firing and hiring to get to where they need to be. Brooklyn and Philly are just two of the few teams to make the move this past offseason. Still, we’ve witnessed the Warriors (Mark Jackson-Steve Kerr), Cavaliers (David Blatt-Ty Lue), and Raptors (Dwane Casey-Nick Nurse) all make the changes after building talented rosters that couldn’t get over the hump.
I may be a year too early on the Hawks and the success that’s coming to this franchise, but looking at the Southeast, who else are you going to bet on — Miami at -300? There isn’t much to work with this in the conference, so I’ll take a young Atlanta squad over the Orlando Magic and Washington Wizards to contend with Miami. The Wizards are going to be a boom or bust squad this season, and Orlando is a team that nobody fears after going 2-8 in the first round of the last two postseasons (10 games). I’ll back Atlanta and the chances Miami suffers a runner-up championship hangover — if there is such a thing.
Boston Celtics To Win the Atlantic Division (+250)
I went back and forth between the Celtics (+250) beating out the Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers compared to the Blazers (+390) finishing ahead of the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz, and it wasn’t an easy choice.
I love what the Celtics have done with their roster, and backing Brad Stevens over the Nets’ Steve Nash and 76ers’ Doc Rivers isn’t crazy by any means. Brooklyn and Philadelphia will go through their growing pains, and each team will have to deal with their star duos and the criticism surrounding them. Boston added Jeff Teague, Tristan Thompson, and rookies Aaron Nesmith (No. 14) and Payton Prichard (No. 26) this offseason while returning everyone vital to the team’s success except Gordon Hayward.
The Celtics lost out on potential usage between their big three of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Kemba Walker, as Hayward and Marcus Smart played larger minutes last season. Letting Hayward walk was similar to trimming some of the fat when it comes to the offense; there were just too many mouths to feed. Boston will have to replace Hayward’s 17.5 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game, but with the new additions and returners, that should be no issue.
Teague and Thompson will make up some of that production, and I’m sure both veterans will play their respective roles to a T. Teague’s job will be a pass-first turnover-free system-guard, and Thompson is a glass-cleaner and primary paint defender. To start the season, Boston is already dealing with some slight issues to starting point guard Kemba Walker. He’s expected to miss at least the month of December with a return date in January. Walker’s early injury is nothing the Celtics can’t handle, and more Brown and Tatum to begin the season isn’t such a bad thing for the fans either.
The Celtics were the only team in the league to have three players average 20 or more points. Brown, Tatum, and Walker combined for 64.1 points, 17.3 rebounds, and 9.9 assists per game. Tatum led the trio in points (23.4) and rebounds (7), while Walker led in assists (4.8). All three players shot above 42% from the field and 38% or better from the three in 56, 57, and 66 of the Celtics 72 games in 2019-20. As long as the three of them are on the court together, they have a shot, and let’s not forget they were up 2-0 on the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals. That blown series is only going to make this group hungrier.
The Celtics have an array of young talent ready to step up, including Robert Williams, Grant Williams, Carsen Edwards, Romeo Langford, Tacko Fall, and Tremont Waters –not counting their 2020 rookie class. Boston has an interesting roster and has set themselves up for a chance at an NBA Finals appearance within the next few years, and potentially as far as five years in the future if Brown and Tatum stick together. They have the camaraderie over the rest of the Eastern Conference elites to begin the season, especially in the Atlantic Conference.
Brooklyn’s going to learn to mesh and feed nearly half-a-dozen mouths under their rookie head coach. How Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant handle playing with one another and the role players on this roster remain unseen, but they’re sure to endure some rough stretches. The 76ers have two new starters in Seth Curry and Danny Green with a new coach and plenty of rotations to figure out. I can’t forget to mention the 76ers were a horrid 12-25 on the road last season compared to an NBA-best 31-4 at home. Boston was 26-10 at home and 22-14 on the road, both the third-best in the East and top six across the league.
The Celtics are worth a bet in a 72-game shortened season, and out of all the second-placed teams in terms of odds, Boston is the best bet.
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Vaughn Dalzell is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Vaughn, check out his archive or follow him @VaughnDalzell.