Knicks vs. Sixers ATS Pick for 12/19 (Sports Betting)
A juicy Wednesday night slate can be overwhelming. With so many enticing matchups, picking the right game to bet on can be extremely difficult. With Harden facing off against John Wall and Giannis going up against Anthony Davis, there will be no shortage of excitement tonight. However, the strongest betting play of the night lies in the game being played in Philadelphia.
Current Form
Knicks
The Knicks come into this game playing their worst basketball of the season. Things have gone from bad to worse as the Knicks have lost nine of their last 11 games. After a surprisingly competitive start to the season, the Knicks hit rock-bottom Monday night suffering an embarrassing home loss to Phoenix. Recent injuries to Tim Hardaway Jr., Mitchell Robinson, and Alonzo Trier have shortened an already paper-thin rotation (Hardaway is questionable tonight). New York will be playing this game on one day’s rest (5-13 record on one day’s rest).
Sixers
Tonight, Philadelphia will be playing their third game in four days. The Sixers played with low energy in their most recent game, a 123-96 blowout loss in San Antonio. Brett Brown pulled the plug early, as no one played over 29 minutes. Philadelphia should be well rested for Wednesday’s game. The Sixers have gone through an adjustment period since acquiring Jimmy Butler. However, the Sixers have shown signs of progress. The team has won six of the last eight games with Butler in the lineup. Philadelphia has been 15-4 this season when playing on one day’s rest.
Edge: Sixers
The Sixers come into this game in a significantly better place than the Knicks. Philadelphia is healthy, rested, and playing their best basketball of the young season
Statistical Breakdown
Knicks
Being a young team, it isn’t surprising that the Knicks struggle defensively. Many of the Knicks’ players are either young guys learning to play NBA defense, or they are defensively-limited veterans (Enes Kanter, Tim Hardaway Jr.). The Knicks rank 24th in Opponent Points in the Paint per game (44.7) and rank 28th in Opponent three-point Percentage (36.8). Additionally, New York ranks 20th in Opponent Made Free Throws per game (18.3). The Knicks’ offense isn’t much better, ranking 21st in Points per game (108.6). Despite David Fizdale’s emphasis on three-pointers and an up-tempo pace, the team ranks 20th in three-point Percentage (34.5) and play at a league average pace.
Sixers
Philadelphia’s size is their biggest advantage. With a 6’10’’ point guard and a 7’0’’ center, the Sixers have a size advantage every night. Using their superior height, the Sixers have predicated their offense on being physical inside. Subsequently, the Sixers rank second in the league in both Free Throws Attempted per game (27.1) and Percent of Points from Free Throws (18.4%). Joel Embiid is second in the league in Free Throws Attempted per game at 9.94. Embiid has made a habit of getting even elite defensive centers into early foul trouble.
Edge: Sixers
The Knicks’ will not be able to match Philadelphia’s physicality inside. The mismatch of the Sixers’ ability to draw fouls against the Knicks’ lack of defensive discipline will prove fatal for New York. The Knicks’ lack of depth will only be exacerbated by the early foul trouble the team is sure to get into. Furthermore, Embiid will take advantage of the Knicks’ lack of depth at the center position. In their previous meeting this season, Embiid scored 26 points, grabbed 14 rebounds, and dished out seven assists. The combination of Enes Kanter and Luke Kornet will prove futile in trying to corral Embiid.
Line Analysis
The opening line for the game was -13 Philadelphia. Since then, 70% of betting action for the spread has been placed on the Sixers pushing the spread up to -13.5. This line movement also indicates that the sharp bettors have found value in the Sixers as well. This line should continue to move up throughout the day, as the Sixers have been one of the heavier bet public teams this season. I expect this line to get pushed up to 14 by tip-off.
At first glance, the 13.5-point line seems appropriate given the opposing directions the two teams are trending in. However, the market has struggled in their recent valuation of the Knicks. The Knicks have only covered in three of their last 10 games. Conversely, the Sixers have covered the spread in six of their last 10 games.
Edge: Sixers
The combination of the sharp bettor’s backing and the market’s recent struggles in valuing the Knicks suggest there is value in the low Sixers’ spread.
Verdict
These two teams are heading in opposite directions. While the Sixers are healthy and playing their best basketball, the Knicks are injured and can’t buy a win. Joel Embiid will take full advantage of the mismatch he has on New York’s big men down low. Take the Sixers -13.5 in a game they should win by over 20.
Jeremy Homler is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jeremy, check out his archive.