NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (1/9)
There is an exciting slate of games in the NBA on Friday night. There are 20 teams in action over 10 games with plenty of intrigue. Let's take a look at a few of the matchups for our top NBA picks & predictions.
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Friday’s Best NBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics
This matchup between Eastern Conference contenders is a battle of strength versus strength. It's one of the league's best offenses in Boston, taking on one of the best defenses in Toronto. Something here has to give.
Toronto has been fantastic on the defensive end all season. They force their opponents to a low shooting rate while also creating turnovers at the fourth-highest rate in the league. In their last five games, they've allowed just 105.2 points per game (PPG). And in the last matchup with Boston in December, they held the Celtics to just 22 assists on 44 made field goals, five points fewer than their already league-low assists rate.
Boston is incredibly efficient on offense, and when they're hitting threes, as they did in the first meeting against Toronto, they're able to soar over any total. However, they haven't been as good of a three-point shooting team, only ranking eighth on the season so far in three-point rate.
Toronto has already shown they can slow down Boston’s offense when they allowed just 112 points in the last meeting. Both teams love to play at a slow pace, with both teams averaging fewer than 100 possessions per 48 minutes, both being in the top five slowest paces in the league. These teams are more than capable of playing a grind-it-out style game, and that lends to an under play in a critical matchup for early Eastern Conference seeding.
Pick: Under 223.5 Points (-110)
New York Knicks at Phoenix Suns
The Knicks have certainly struggled since their NBA Cup victory over the Spurs in mid-December. They're just 6-6 straight up (SU) and 2-10 against the spread (ATS) in the 12 games since that mark. On Friday, they start a four-game road trip on the West Coast against the pesky Phoenix Suns.
Phoenix has been red-hot recently. They've gone 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. This has included opponents like Oklahoma City, Houston, Cleveland and Golden State. Not only have the Suns been impressive lately, but they've also been fantastic at home all season, compiling a 13-4 ATS record. The schedule has been quirky, though, as they've only played five out of 16 games at home since the start of December.
The home cooking should do Phoenix good, not that they've needed it for as hot as they've been. Conversely, the road has been tough on the Knicks. Despite being 15-6 at home ATS this season, New York is a putrid 5-12 ATS on the road.
All the trends point to this being a Suns cover, and I still don't think the books are properly valuing this scrappy Phoenix squad. I'll keep backing them at home while they're hot against a Knicks team still going through it.
Pick: Suns +2.5 (-108)
Milwaukee Bucks at Los Angeles Lakers
Perhaps the most high-profile game of the night has the Milwaukee Bucks traveling to Los Angeles to take on the Lakers. Since returning from injury, Giannis Antetokounmpo has improved the overall outlook of the Bucks. They're 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS in the six games since he's returned to the lineup.
Milwaukee has spent much of the last six years in the top 10 of offenses in the league. This year, they've taken a huge step back, but Antetokounmpo has missed 14 games. However, they continue to shoot well. They're second in effective field goal rate (eFG%) in the entire league, including a top-three field goal rate at both the rim and from deep. With Antetokounmpo back in the lineup, the offensive rebounding and free-throw rates should improve.
The Lakers have had some struggles recently, but mostly on the defensive end. They're still an elite offense led by Luka Doncic and LeBron James. They sit just behind the Bucks in eFG% and are the best team at getting to the free-throw line in the entire league. We can expect a lot of fireworks on the offensive end in this game, so I'll be playing the over.
Pick: Over 231.5 Points (-110)