NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (11/21)
It's another night of NBA Cup action on Friday. There are nine more games on the schedule and plenty of opportunities for the causal and experienced bettor alike to find an edge. Here are a few of my favorite bets for the Friday NBA slate.
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Friday’s Best NBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors
Don't look now, but the Raptors have positioned themselves as one of the best teams in an open-ended Eastern Conference. The Raptors are winners of nine out of their last ten and are 7-3 ATS in that span. They'll take on perhaps the worst team in the Eastern Conference, the Wizards on Friday.
This is a good matchup for a Toronto team that doesn't turn the ball over much. Washington is dead last in the league at creating turnovers and dead last at defensive rebounding. That means Toronto will get plenty of first chance as well as second chance shots. The Raptors are a top 10 shooting team at all three levels and should have no issue scoring on this team.
For the NBA Cup standings, a win puts Toronto squarely in the drivers seat with just a home game next week against the Pacers between them and the quarterfinals. With the tiebreakers coming down to point differential, I expect Toronto to try and run up the score on this Wizards team that won't provide much defensive resistance. Despite the large spread I'll back Toronto.
Pick: Raptors -13.5 (-115)
Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls
It's been an exciting start to the season for the young Bulls. They're a surprising 8-6 SU and 8-5-1 ATS. They also sit 1-1 in the NBA Cup as they host the Heat on Friday night. Miami has gotten off to a hot start themselves with a 9-6 SU and 10-4-1 ATS record. Something that has fed both of these teams hot starts is scorching shooting from deep. Both teams boast 3P% over 38% which is top five in the league.
The initial thought might be that the Over is the play but this point total is a bit outrageous. It's getting close to 250 and is easily the largest total on the board. If you look at the matchup though, Chicago is going to play right into Miami's defense. The Heat make life inside difficult and force their opponents to shoot a lot of threes, almost half of opponent field goal attempts are from deep. Sure Chicago is good there, but Miami is one of the best three-point defense by 3P%.
As good of a shooting team as Miami is, they won't get many second chances as they're a poor offensive rebounding team. Neither of these teams are rated terribly high defensively but they both sit in the top half of the league of DRtg. I think this total is way too high and I'll be on the Under.
Pick: Under 249.5 Points (-110)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz
It's no secret that the Utah Jazz defense has been bad. They've given up under 114 points just once in their last 12 games and at home they sport a putrid 129.3 PPG allowed. Because of this, the Over is 6-1 in games that Utah plays in the Delta Center. On Friday they'll host one of the top rated offenses in the league, Oklahoma City.
The Thunder, despite being a top five offense by ORtg, are only 8-8 to the Over on the season. This is in big part to their elite defense. They've held their last seven opponents to 99.9 PPG. In today's NBA that is unheard of. However, six of those seven opponents sit in the bottom third of the league in offensive efficiency. Utah is no juggernaut offensively but they've scored a lot at home by playing fast and getting to the free throw line.
Oklahoma City is a team that likes to play slow but they're more than capable of turning it on if the Jazz want to try and get into a track meet. Utah is able to mitigate some of their shooting woes by attacking the basket getting to the free throw line. In the mountain air of Salt Lake City, I expect the ball to fly and see the Jazz home totals go to 7-1 to the over.
Pick: Over 235.5 Points (-110)