NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (11/28)
After the hustle and bustle of Black Friday simmers down, it's time to settle in with some NBA action. It's the final day of NBA Cup group play, and there are a few games with some meaningful stakes. Let's take a look at some of the most interesting matchups of the day for our best NBA picks & predictions.
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Friday’s Best NBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks
One of the first games with big implications is the Bucks versus the Knicks. If New York wins, they'll clinch East Group C with the head-to-head tiebreaker over Miami. If Milwaukee wins, they'd likely need Cleveland and Detroit to lose to make it to the knockout stage. With Giannis Antetokounmpo out, I just don't see how Milwaukee wins or even keeps this close.
Despite an 11-6 record, the Knicks are perhaps the strongest team in the Eastern Conference. The offense has been elite with a top-10 ranking in effective field goal rate (eFG%), turnover rate and offensive rebounding rate. If you do all of those well, you're going to win a lot of basketball games.
Milwaukee has frankly been bad without Antetokounmpo in the lineup. This tracks since he had the second-highest usage in the league when he went out with his injury. The Bucks have lost six consecutive games, going just 1-5 against the spread (ATS). That one ATS win was on Wednesday, when they had a chance to knock off Miami in NBA Cup group play. I just don't think they have the firepower, while shorthanded, to compete with a motivated Knicks team.
Pick: Knicks -7.5 (-114)
Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons
The Pistons' 13-game winning streak was snapped on Wednesday in a frenetic finish in Boston. It was a game where the Pistons didn't shoot the ball particularly well, and Boston was on fire from deep. Orlando blew out the 76ers on the same night in a game where they dominated the boards and attempted 19 more shots than their opponent.
This game means a lot for both teams. Both have dabbled in the playoffs the last two years with young, talented rosters and both are looking to take the next step this year. The key for both teams has been having a strong defense. The Magic and Pistons both rank in the top eight in defensive rating (DRtg) and are working their way up the Eastern Conference standings, with both of the previous two Eastern Conference champions carrying significant injuries into the season.
Since the winner of this game will be Group B champions, there is a lot on the line. I expect a playoff-like atmosphere in Detroit, and that includes a playoff-like pace and defensive effort. This will be one of the more tightly contested matchups of the night, and I expect that effort and the pace to dictate an under on the total.
Pick: Under 234.5 Points (-110)
Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder welcome Jalen Williams back on Friday. Because of that, the spread in this game has ballooned way up. Obviously, the Thunder are an impressive team and tout an incredible defense. In a typical game, I could see the Thunder blowing out the Suns, but I don't see that happening in this matchup.
The main reason I think the Suns keep this closer is that they need to if they want to keep their chances of advancing to the knockout stage alive. They currently have a point differential of +35, which gives them a good cushion over Memphis, who sit at +9, but a blowout loss and a strong win by Memphis could flip those standings.
Oklahoma City will look to incorporate Williams back into the lineup, but that isn't always a smooth transition. Phoenix is a good shooting team that also cleans up its own misses at a top-five rate. With more to play for with Phoenix, they don't need to win, but they'll need to keep this one close. I think they have just enough to do that against a strong Thunder team that may not be quite as motivated by the final score.
Pick: Suns +16 (-110)