NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (12/12)
Seven more NBA games are on the schedule for Friday. With the NBA Cup semi-finals set, every team is well rested and ready to go. Let's take a deeper look at a few of the matchups and dive into our top NBA picks & predictions.
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Friday’s Best NBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons
This will be the third matchup of the season between these two exciting young teams in the Eastern Conference. Both of the previous matchups came down to the wire, with Detroit taking both but the teams splitting against the spread (ATS). With a nice break for both teams, we could see both at their healthiest in a while.
With names like Trae Young, Kristaps Porzingis and Tobias Harris game-time decisions, we have seen the total get up into the 230s. I think this is a steep climb. These are two of the best defensive teams in the league. Detroit ranks sixth in defensive rating, while Atlanta is eighth. Both teams are elite at forcing turnovers and limiting shot attempts. We saw this in the last matchup that ended 99-98. They combined for 38 turnovers, and despite Detroit reeling in 18 offensive rebounds, neither team eclipsed 89 shot attempts.
With these teams trending towards the postseason, I expect a postseason feel. Two healthy, well-rested teams that thrive on defense should make for a low-scoring affair. I think we've been given a gift with this number and will gladly take the under with some buffer if both teams shoot the ball well.
Pick: Under 232.5 Points (-115)
Indiana Pacers at Philadelphia 76ers
The pendulum seems to have swung the other way on the Indiana Pacers. They started off the season horribly. Due to a myriad of injuries and a difficult schedule, the Pacers got off to a horrible record both straight up (SU) and ATS. However, in the last 10 games, they've started to turn their season around. Going 5-5 overall and 8-2 ATS recently, the Pacers have navigated through an easier patch of their schedule.
The 76ers come into this one healthier than they've been most of the season. While they've battled some of their injury concerns, they've managed to stay squarely in the playoff picture. One reason is that they're beating the bad team on their schedule. Since the beginning of the season, they're 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS against teams currently with losing records. Indiana falls squarely in that category.
The recent surge for Indiana has been impressive, but it might be a bit of fool's gold. There is likely a lot of value betting this Indiana team against other bad teams or as they get healthy, but their injuries are going to continue to hurt them against good teams. Philadelphia looks poised to go on a run, and I don't see Indiana slowing them down on Friday night.
Pick: 76ers -7.5 (-110)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors
Few, if any, teams have been as bad ATS as the Timberwolves. With an 8-16 ATS record, they've barely been able to cover this year, despite a strong 15-9 record SU. Recently, they've been even worse, going 2-8 over their last 10 games. On Friday, they'll travel to Golden State to take on a bruised and battered Warriors team.
With both Steph Curry and Draymond Green listed as game-time decisions, the line indicates both will play. If that is the case, I like the Warriors. Minnesota's overall record is a product of the schedule. Per its defensive rating, they've played the easiest schedule in the league, but that changes against a Warriors team that is second in the league in defensive rating.
The Warriors are a top-five team in the league in effective field goal rate (eFG%) defense, turnover creation and not sending opponents to the free throw line. For Minnesota, their ability to make shots and get to the line is what drives their offense. Golden State is going to make it incredibly difficult for Minnesota to score points as they usually do, and all of that adds up to another ATS loss for the Timberwolves.
Pick: Warriors -4.5 (-110)