NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (4/3)
It is a jam-packed schedule of games on Friday night in the NBA. With 18 teams in action, there are plenty of opportunities for casual fans and bettors alike to find some entertainment in the slate. Let's look at a few of these matchups to find best bets for Friday.
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NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (4/3)
(Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Philadelphia 76ers
The two current sixth seeded teams in their respective conferences will square off on Friday night in Philadelphia. It will be the second meeting of the season after Philadelphia won the first game back in February. It was a game where they were +9.5 but managed to win outright 135-108 despite the Timberwolves being nearly full strength. In this matchup, Anthony Edwards' status is still up in the air, and the current line reflects that.
The previous result is a bit of fool's gold for the 76ers. Philadelphia shot 56.8 percent from three-point territory on 37 attempts. At 35.2 percent on the season, they're actually in the bottom half of the league in that respect. Minnesota also typically defends those shots, too, as the 38.4 percent 3PA/FGA mark by their defense is the second lowest in the league.
Coming off a loss to Detroit last night, Minnesota could be vulnerable, but that is already baked into this number. Philadelphia needs this win more than the Timberwolves, but that means Minnesota will be playing looser. The numbers back up that Minnesota is the better team despite missing a key piece of their roster offensively. The Timberwolves have had success without Edwards, going 5-2 ATS. If he doesn't play, this is a good number; if he ends up playing, it's even better.
Pick: Timberwolves +2 (-110)
Atlanta Hawks at Brooklyn Nets
The surprise team of the second half has been the Atlanta Hawks. After some key moves at the trade deadline, they fortified their lineup and have catapulted up the Eastern Conference standings to the fifth seed, where they are poised to take on the Cavaliers in the first round. Their rise has come at the expense of most of their opponents. Not only are they 18-3 since the trade deadline, but they're also 16-5 ATS.
A dive into those trends shows that in games where they were double-digit favorites, they even covered at a similar rate, going 6-2. On Friday night, they'll play a Nets team that has been quite hapless, even at home. The Brooklyn offense ranks last in the NBA in ORtg. They're dead last in eFG% and second-to-last in TO%. Against an Atlanta team that likes to force turnovers and run the break, this is going to give them all kinds of opportunities.
The Hawks will look to fly up and down the court in this game and get the Nets out of their comfort zone. Atlanta ranks sixth in the league in defensive TO% and will force the Nets to make mistake after mistake. Outside of an outlier shooting performance, I don't see how the Nets compete in this one. I'll take the heavy favorite Hawks.
Pick: Atlanta -15.5 (-115)
Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks
Prior to the season, an April matchup between Boston and Milwaukee would have been thought of as must-watch. After a lost season for the Bucks, this game has been relegated to second tier. However, that doesn't mean there isn't a good edge.
The Bucks’ offense has been nothing short of bad as they've battled key injuries into the month of March. On eight occasions in the month of March, the Bucks failed to reach even 100 points in a game and averaged just 105.5 PPG. On Friday, they'll host one of the best defenses in the league, in the Boston Celtics.
The Celtics have a top-five DRtg and play at a pace that will grind the game to a halt. At just 95.4 possessions per game, they beat out the second-lowest mark by nearly a possession and a half. Throw on top of that a third-ranked eFG% and a top-five defensive rebounding team, and it is hard for any team to score on them, let alone a struggling offensive one.
Boston will look to play this game slow and disrupt an already shaky Milwaukee offense. Even if Boston has a strong shooting night, this game should still go under. The Bucks are liable to score under 100 in any game they play, like what happened when these teams last met, and Boston won 108-81. That total was set even lower than this one, and still the under covered with ease. I expect more of the same on Friday.
Pick: Total u217.5 (-110)