NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (2/23)
There is a full slate of NBA action on Sunday. Twenty teams are on the schedule and as we get closer to the playoffs, the competition will heat up. Here is a look at a few of my best bets for Sunday, February 23.
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Sunday's Best NBA Picks
(Odds Courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook)
Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors
The Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors square off in a nationally televised game on Sunday afternoon. Life hasn't been too unkind to the Mavericks in the post-Luka Doncic era. they lost Anthony Davis for some time due to injury, but they've managed to win five of their last six games, going 6-0 against the spread (ATS).
The line for this game favors Golden State at home, but the number seems a bit off. Davis is a big loss for Dallas, but Golden State is one of the few teams where having a small lineup could be beneficial. The Warriors' shot distribution and shooting percentage at the rim are both in the bottom third of the league.
Meanwhile, Dallas is still a talented offensive team. Their seventh-ranked offensive rating backs that up considering they’ve been playing without Doncic since Christmas. They are an excellent three-point shooting team with a 37.2% make rate. This should serve them well against a Golden State defense that gives up a lot of three-point attempts. The line doesn't indicate it, but I still expect a close battle between two of the best teams in the Western Conference over the last few years. I'll be backing the road underdog.
Pick: Mavericks +8.5 (-115)
Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic
It's no secret the Washington Wizards are in full-tank mode. Their league-worst 9-46 record is a testament to one of the organization's main goals: Acquire more talent through the draft. However, the roster is still comprised of professional basketball players competing every game. Although just 3-5 straight up (SU) in February, the Wizards are an impressive 7-1 ATS. It appears the market hasn't quite caught up to the trend here.
Orlando’s offense, due to both injury and a lack of strong shooting, ranks 29th in offensive rating. For Washington, this is a welcome sight as they rank 29th in defensive rating. One reason for optimism in the Washington locker room is the addition of Khris Middleton. In his first game with the Wizards, they allowed only 104 points. This was their third-best defensive performance of the season in terms of points allowed.
Washington likely won't win, and that is by design, but they're playing too hard and there is too much added upside on the defensive end for them to be getting this many points. Orlando is not a good offensive team and any team that can't shoot is going to struggle to put away teams by double digits, even Washington. I'll play the trends and back the road underdog.
Pick: Wizards +12.5 (-108)
Phoenix Suns at Toronto Raptors
The Phoenix Suns are traveling to Toronto to finish the second half of a back-to-back after their win in Chicago on Saturday. Phoenix won, but they continued a trend of poor defense as they've now given up 123.6 points per game (PPG) over their last nine contests. Their defensive rating now sits at 26th in the league and they are in the bottom five in rebounding on both ends of the floor. They’re also one of the worst teams at creating turnovers.
Toronto isn't a strong defensive team either. They rank 24th in defensive rating due to poor defensive rebounding and a league-high foul rate. However, in February, as they've finally started to get healthy, the offense has started to gel. This has led to Toronto going 6-2 this month.
Phoenix has the scorers to light up the scoreboard. Although they won't have many break opportunities by not forcing turnovers, they should get easy scoring chances at the free-throw line. Their free-throw shooting percentage is 80% - third-best in the league. Toronto’s healthy lineup should have no trouble scoring on a defense that played on Saturday in Chicago. With two porous defenses that will give up plenty of second-chance opportunities, I expect a high-scoring game.
Pick: Total Over 228.5 Points (-110)