NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (1/1)
The calendar turns to 2026, and with it, some teams are hoping for the fresh start the New Year brings. Other teams hope to replicate the success of 2025. Let's take a look at two matchups in this trip around the sun for the best NBA picks & predictions to get 2026 started right.
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Thursday’s Best NBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons
For just the second time in two and a half weeks, the Detroit Pistons will be playing in front of their home crowd. The road has typically been kind to the Pistons, but they're a different team in Detroit. Not only have they gone 9-6 against the spread (ATS), but they're also 9-6 to the over when playing in front of their home crowd.
Enter the Miami Heat to start 2026. They've been throwing up crooked numbers for the last few games and averaging 138.3 points per game (PPG) in this recent three-game win streak. Although they've shot well, a big reason they're scoring a lot is due to their pace, which is the fastest in the entire NBA, and some strong offensive rebounding. They'll be matched up with a Detroit team that has the second-highest offensive rebounding rate in the league.
It was a shooting clinic the last time these two met in Miami. Detroit won 138-135, but that level of shot-making is unsustainable as the teams combined to shoot 54.6% from the field. However, Miami is an elite shot-making team from deep and the Pistons are strong at the rim. Plus, with both teams being strong on the offensive glass, there should be plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities.
With Detroit coming off a long road trip, you could see some tired legs, and those will manifest most on defense. Expect Miami to push the pace to tire Detroit out and the total to climb. This one might not get as high as their last meeting, but the over is still the play.
Pick: Over 239.5 Points (-110)
Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Clippers
Last week, we backed Utah in a key home game against Detroit. Not only did the Jazz cover (+9.5), but they won outright. It was a really good spot for Utah in front of their home crowd, where they're now 13-6 ATS. For Thursday's game, they'll travel to Los Angeles to take on the Clippers, who appear to have finally turned their season around.
Not only did the Clippers finish 2025 on a five-game win streak both straight up (SU) and ATS, but they also dominated, covering by an average of 21.1 points per game. It has been a mix of both elite offense and elite defense that has gotten them through this stretch. They shut down some strong offenses like the Rockets, Lakers and Pistons, allowing just 97.6 PPG and 43% shooting from the field over the five-game stretch.
The real turnaround has been the play of Kawhi Leonard, who has been on a tear, averaging 37.8 PPG during this stretch while also dishing out over four assists per contest. Neither Thompson (Ausar and Amen) twin had an answer for Leonard, who scored 96 combined against the Rockets and Pistons. No one on the Jazz roster can slow him down, as they post the single worst defensive rating in the league.
The Clippers are finally looking like the team that finished the 2025 season with the third-best net rating. They're a team to watch on the spread until sportsbooks start to catch up. Against a Utah team that is Mr. Hyde on the road offensively and always a sieve defensively, this is a good play to get the year started.
Pick: Clippers -11.5 (-105)