NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (2/19)
The NBA returns from the All Star break with a few really intriguing matchups. Overall, 20 teams are in action on this Thursday slate of games. Let's take a look at a few of these matchups to find some best bets as we roll out of the All Star break.
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Thursday’s Best NBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks
The premiere game on Thursdays slate pits two top teams in the Eastern Conference. Detroit has won each of the first two matchups in Detroit this season by scores of 121-90 and 118-80. These were the two worst offensive outputs of the season by the Knicks who have been pretty putrid on the road all season. Luckily for the Knicks, they're at home on Thursday where they've gone 20-9 ATS.
The Knicks get a slight reprieve with Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart both out due to suspension. However, this might not benefit the Knicks as much as most teams. They're a team that is below average at shooting at the rim with a 64.0 FG% and only attempt 30.8% of their shots there which is below league average. As important as the two Detroit big men are to their defensive philosophy, they're most dangerous around the rim, an area the Knicks don't thrive.
For Detroit, we can expect a bit of an offensive drop off on the road. They shoot a little bit worse and score a little bit less on the road this season, but it's the Knick defense that has performed better at home. Opponents are scoring 3.4 PPG less at MSG than they have when facing the Knicks on their own home courts. More stout defense coupled with the fact that the Pistons will look to muck up the game on their defensive end make this a competitive under play to start the second half of the season off for these championship contenders.
Pick: Under 223.5 Total Points (-110)
Orlando Magic at Sacramento Kings
The futures of these two teams are headed in vastly different directions. The Magic, despite myriad injuries that have plagued them all season, have a young core that they hope to grow into a championship contender. Meanwhile the Kings are a patchwork of veterans that has done anything but work. However, for this matchup we can only assess the players available.
The Magic announced on Wednesday that they'll continue to be without rising star Franz Wagner. This could be a problem, particularly on the road where they've gone just 5-8 SU in their last 13 including a 2-11 ATS record. Their biggest win on the road since the beginning of December was a nine point win in Miami right before the break.
A big reason Orlando hasn't reached their potential is the lack of outside shooting. They thought they had addressed it in the offseason, but they still remain one of the worst teams shooting from deep. Their 34.2% 3P% is the third worst mark in the league. The Kings aren't a daunting opponent, but this is too high of a number for a team that has struggled on the road for months, especially traveling from coast to coast.
Pick: Kings +9 (-110)
Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors
The Celtics and Warriors get started on their second half of the season with a big matchup in San Francisco. With the playoffs coming into view, it's time for both of these teams to ratchet up the defense. That should be relatively easy for both of these defenses who are ranked in the top half of the league in DRtg. But could the matchup actually lead to a higher scoring game?
Boston has been elite defensively since the end of January. In the seven games leading into the All Star break the Celtics have averaged allowing 96.7 PPG. However, Golden State could be a bad matchup for this defense. The Celtics allow almost 45% of their opponent field goal attempts from beyond the arch and that plays right into what the Warriors like to do. They shoot over half of their field goal attempts from three and make them at a 36.2% clip.
Boston themselves have been one of the best offenses in the league. They take care of the ball and offensive rebound at one of the best rates in the league, which should bode well against a Warriors defense that relies on forcing turnovers. This should be a very competitive game but strong offensive play should buck some recent trends with these teams and a play to the Over is one of my best bets to round out my card.
Pick: Over 217.5 Total Points (-110)