NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (3/5)
Thursday night in the NBA is another huge slate of games. Nine games are on the schedule with some big time matchups and key storylines coming into play. Let's take a look at some of these games to identify best bets for NBA Thursday.
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Thursday’s Best NBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Dallas Mavericks at Orlando Magic
The season hasn't quite gone the way this young Magic team wanted as injuries have again stalled them throughout the year. They're a team squarely in position for the Play-In and their recent results backup that they're a bit of a middling team. They're a respectable 7-6 ATS since the start of February but against teams that are under .500 they're 5-2, indicating they soundly beat the teams they're supposed to beat.
Dallas fits that category. Dallas has an offense that ranks in the bottom five of ORtg. Their shooting by eFG% and OReb rates are both in the bottom third of the league and they rely heavily on getting to the free throw line to score points. Although the Orlando defense hasn't been as strong as they hoped coming into the season, they still rank near league average in eFG% defense and are one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the league so they should give a stagnant Dallas offense all they can handle.
If Orlando was going up against one of the serious title contenders, I would fade them, but against a team like Dallas that is more worried about growth of their young pieces and building towards the future, the Magic are a good bet. Their defense is more than capable of slowing down a Dallas offense that has averaged just 94 PPG in their last three contests. With one of the harder schedules down the home stretch, this is a great opportunity for Orlando to pick up a strong win and cover.
Pick: Magic -8.5 (-110)
Utah Jazz at Washington Wizards
Two of the worst defenses in the league get together on Thursday night when the Jazz and Wizards take center court. Despite the records, this is one of the most highly anticipated games of the night because the Wizards will be debuting Trae Young in the lineup. The addition of Young should help an offense that ranks near dead last in ORtg due to poor shooting and a high turnover rate.
With the Wizards and Jazz ranking 29th and 30th in defensive rating, respectively, while both rank in the top 6 of pace. That alone is a recipe for an Over, and we've seen that occur in three straight matchups between these two teams, dating back to 2024, even with lines eclipsing 230 points in each matchup.
Expect these teams to continue to get up and down the floor in this one with very little defense played. Washington should have one of their healthiest lineups in a while and with Trae Young now in the fold, the shooting and passing should improve. Despite both having offenses that rank in the bottom half of the league, these teams have a combined 69-52-1 record to the over on the season and there is good reason to expect more of the same Thursday night.
Pick: Over 241.0 Total Points (-110)
Detroit Pistons at San Antonio Spurs
The biggest matchup on Thursday night is between two key NBA title contenders. This is the second matchup of the season between these two and the second in the last two weeks. The Spurs defense took center stage in the first contest, holding Detroit to just 103 points on 37.7% shooting. The rim protection presence of Victor Wembanyama gave the Pistons fits and forced them to shoot from deep where they have struggled the last few weeks since trying to address it at the deadline.
A key change to this game is the addition of Isaiah Stewart to the Detroit lineup. He leads the NBA in FG% defended at the rim, ahead of even Wembanyama. Although he doesn't play extensive minutes for the Pistons, he's an upgrade over the other options to backup Jalen Duren. He'll help improve the defensive output against a Spurs offense that is top 10 in both FGA at the rim and FG% at the rim.
Everything in this matchup points to an Under. These teams have gone under when they battled in each of the last four contests. The Spurs shot 45% from deep last week in this spot and the total still couldn't eclipse the number. With a reinforced defense from Detroit and shooting woes that don't look to be getting better anytime soon, this is an easy Under play.
Pick: Under 228.5 Total Points (-110)