NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (1/28)
There are nine NBA games tonight, beginning at 7:00 p.m. ET with the Cleveland Cavaliers hosting the Los Angeles Lakers on ESPN. With both teams strong offensively, is there any reason to support defenses in that game?
Later, the Golden State Warriors face the Utah Jazz, who allow the most three-pointers per game, and the Houston Rockets look to pick up their second win against the San Antonio Spurs. Below are the best NBA picks & predictions for Wednesday, January 28th.
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Wednesday’s Best NBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Lakers at Cleveland Cavaliers
Both teams have played some very low-scoring games lately, but that has more to do with their opponents than with their style of play. Four of the Cavaliers’ last five opponents rank in the top 14 in scoring defense, while two of the Lakers’ last five opponents rank in the top 10 in the same category.
Despite these recent contests, the Cavaliers are still averaging the fourth-most points per game (119). They've scored 119+ points twice in their last three games.
While the Lakers rank toward the middle of the pack, averaging 116.3 points per game, I anticipate them topping that average against the 20th-best scoring defense in the league. Both teams are allowing over 116 points per game. And while their combined average of 232.8 points allowed per game is slightly below tonight’s 235.5 total, I expect these two above-average offenses to dictate the tempo.
Pick: Over 235.5 Points -9.5 (-110)
Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz
The Warriors lead the NBA with 16.2 made three-pointers per game. Tonight, they face the Jazz, who rank dead-last in three-pointers allowed per game, giving up an average of 15.9 per contest.
While the total of 21.5 made three-pointers is set significantly higher than either average, the volume at which the Warriors shoot from beyond the arc has me confident in this prop for the listed price. The Jazz are allowing opponents to make 37.8% of their three-point attempts this season, the second-highest percentage in the league. Meanwhile, the Warriors are averaging 44.6 three-point attempts per contest, which is 2.1 more than any other team.
These two teams have met twice this season, and the Warriors made 19 three-pointers in both contests. Therefore, there is no value in taking them to make at least 20 threes tonight for a price of -170. The higher number may be a bit of a longshot, but the price of +125, considering the matchup, makes it one of the best bets of the night.
Pick: Warriors Team Total Over 21.5 Made Three-Pointers (+125)
San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets
The Rockets have scored 110 and 111 points in their two games against the Spurs. Just last week, the 111 points they scored at home were enough to beat the Spurs by five.
While the Rockets are the 12th-highest scoring team in the league, they play much more slowly than most other teams. They rank 26th in total possessions per game, averaging 101.4 per contest. The Heat, who rank first, average 107.8.
But the Spurs also play a methodical brand of basketball, as they rank 19th in possessions per game, averaging 103.3. These slow tempos are big contributors to why both of these teams rank in the top seven in the league in scoring defense. While the Spurs allow 112.4 points per game, I anticipate the Rockets slowing this game down even more than usual, as they try to beat a very good offensive team with defense.
Pick: Rockets Team Total Under 111.5 Points -9.5 (-108)
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.