NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (2/4)
There are seven NBA games tonight, beginning with the New York Knicks hosting the Denver Nuggets at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN. Below, I highlight why the Knicks are being overvalued in that contest. Elsewhere, the San Antonio Spurs will look to move to 4-1 against the Oklahoma City Thunder this season, and the New Orleans Pelicans and Milwaukee Bucks will clash in what should be a high-scoring contest despite Giannis Antetokounmpo being out. Below are the best NBA picks & predictions for Wednesday, February 4th.
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Wednesday’s Best NBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Denver Nuggets at New York Knicks
Since the return of Nikola Jokic, the Nuggets are just 1-2. However, both of those losses were to the two best teams in the NBA, with their most recent defeat at the hands of the Detroit Pistons by just three points.
Meanwhile, the Knicks are red-hot, winning seven games in a row. All but one of those wins were by double digits. Their average margin of victory during their four-game home winning streak is 28 points.
For as dominant as the Knicks have been, this is a team that lost four consecutive games in mid-January, including back-to-back games at home. The Nuggets are the healthiest they've been in a long time, and they're 23-11 with Jokic on the floor this season. That includes a 12-5 road record. The Knicks may still win this game, but they shouldn't be favored by this much over the Nuggets.
Pick: Nuggets +6.5 (-110)
Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs and Thunder meet for their final regular-season matchup tonight, with the Thunder slight road favorites. However, the Spurs have been excellent against the Thunder this season, winning three of their four meetings, with two wins by at least 15 points.
In the Thunder's sole win, they held the Spurs to just 98 points. Victor Wembanyama played 28 minutes and scored just 17 points in that contest. Since that meeting, Wembanyama has scored at least 22 points in six out of nine games, topping 30 twice during that span.
The Thunder rank first in both scoring offense and scoring defense. While they're allowing just 107.7 points per game, the Spurs have scored at least 117 points against them twice. Additionally, the Spurs have held the Thunder below their average of 120.5 points in all four games this season. The Spurs are 17-6 at home this season. Based on how they've played against the Thunder, they shouldn't be underdogs tonight.
Pick: Spurs Moneyline (+100)
New Orleans Pelicans at Milwaukee Bucks
Giannis Antetokounmpo isn't playing in this game, but I still like the over to hit. The Pelicans are allowing the third-most points per game, giving up an average of 120.6 per contest. And while the Bucks have scored fewer than 100 points in two of their most recent four games without Antetokounmpo, they also scored 122 against the 76ers and 131 against the Bulls during that span.
The Bucks are allowing an average of 115.6 points per game, which ranks 15th in the NBA. While they've held three of their last five opponents to 109 points or fewer, they've also allowed at least 120 points 16 times this season.
The Pelicans are averaging 114 points per game, and they've scored that much or fewer in five consecutive games. But the Pelicans average the 11th-most possessions per game, and against a defense that is missing 10 rebounds and nearly one block per game, I expect them to be much more efficient than usual, as this game ends in the 230s.
Pick: Over 221.5 Points (-115)
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.