NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (3/25)
Wednesday's slate is loaded, as 24 teams will take to the court. I'm expecting numerous low-scoring contests, as key injuries and defensive-minded teams disrupt offensive flows. Below, I highlight why we should expect another low-scoring game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics.
Then, I discuss why the absence of key scorers in the Atlanta Hawks versus Detroit Pistons matchup could lead to both teams struggling to score. And finally, I dive into the Houston Rockets' ability to slow down the hot Minnesota Timberwolves.
Below are the best NBA picks & predictions for Wednesday, March 25th.
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Wednesday’s Best NBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Boston Celtics
The two best defensive teams in basketball will meet for the second time in two weeks, and I'm expecting a similar result to the first game. In the first meeting, the Thunder won 104-102. They held the Celtics, who were without Jayson Tatum, to just 40% from the floor and 31% from three-point range.
The Thunder weren't much better, as they shot just 25% from deep, missing 33 three-point attempts. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander went 13-of-18 from the floor in that game, while the rest of the team was just 27-of-66 (40.9%).
No team has scored more than 112 points against the Celtics in six consecutive games, with four teams being held to 104 points or fewer. Meanwhile, the Thunder have held 10 of their last 11 opponents to 111 points or fewer, with four of their last six foes failing to reach more than 103 points. These are two good offensive teams, but the defenses are more imposing, and I don't see a scenario where both offenses have great nights, even if one does.
Pick: Under 217.5 Points (-105)
Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons
For my second pick, I'm going with another under, as the Pistons take the court without leading scorer Cade Cunningham. Cunningham was averaging 24.5 points and 9.9 assists per game. In their last three games without him, the Pistons have failed to score more than 117 points.
However, the Pistons' defense has been phenomenal of late, holding three consecutive opponents to 110 or fewer points. And the Hawks may be without leading scorer Jalen Johnson, who has missed back-to-back games with a shoulder injury. While the Hawks have still managed to score at least 126 points in their last two games, I expect a much worse performance against the league's third-ranked defense, whether Johnson plays or not.
The Pistons have won all three meetings between these two teams this season, and two of the three contests saw at least 232 points. However, neither team scored 100 points in the other meeting. This total feels like it was set with the previous meetings in mind rather than with the injuries and recent trends factored in.
Pick: Under 226.5 Points (-110)
Houston Rockets at Minnesota Timberwolves
Since losing Anthony Edwards, the Timberwolves have been able to post a 3-1 record, with their most recent win coming by 10 points in Boston. But the Rockets already beat the Timberwolves once this season when Edwards was sidelined, and that was despite Julius Randle scoring 39 points.
The Rockets have been up-and-down offensively this season, but the defense has continued to be excellent. They're allowing just 110.2 points per game, which ranks fourth in the league, and teams are shooting just 46.1% against them. They also have the 10th-best three-point shooting defense, which is key against an offense that averages 13.8 made three-pointers per game.
If the Timberwolves hadn't just beaten the Celtics in Boston, this spread would likely be closer to 3.5 points. Take advantage of the recency bias, as the healthier team wins this game and temporarily jumps the Timberwolves in the playoff standings.
Pick: Rockets -1.5 (-105)
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.