NBA Parlay and Best Bets for Wednesday, December 15th (2021)
As a surge in COVID-19 cases strikes the NBA, predictions get harder and harder to make. Teams may release slate-changing news about their players late, the league may reschedule games, and coaches may use lineups we’ve yet to see before. Regardless, I’ve dug through the noise to find a smart same-game parlay for tonight’s set of games.
Parlay YTD: 0-3 (-0.75u)
Straight Bets YTD: 8-1 (+2.3u)
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Leg #1. Wendell Carter Jr. o13.5 Points
Leg #2. Wendell Carter Jr. o1.5 Made Threes
Related Straight Bet #1: Wendell Carter o13.5 Points (-110 at FD Sportsbook)
Straight Bet #1 Size: .5u
Related Straight Bet #2: Wendell Carter o1.5 Made Threes (+134 at FD Sportsbook)
Straight Bet #1 Size: .25u
Carter went for 15 in his last matchup against the Hawks, and he did so while going three-for-three from beyond the arc. I doubt that he’ll have the same success from the perimeter tonight, but even with mild regression, he should still manage to cash this prop.
The Hawks have struggled against opposing bigs on the perimeter. Through their last seven games, the Hawks have allowed the fifth-most made threes to centers (1.7). While it’s true that Orlando often uses Carter at power forward, the Hawks have given up the 13th-most triples to fours on the year. Also, Carter and Mo Bamba combined for nine attempted threes in their last meeting against the Hawks, so it seems Atlanta is fine with allowing big men to jack up lower-percentage shots.
We’re targeting both Carter’s points and made threes because, first, correlation; and second, Atlanta’s season-long perimeter struggles have persisted despite their more recent struggles in the paint. The Hawks have allowed the third-most points in the paint over their last three games (52.7) — a trend that hasn’t stopped opposing bigs from also taking shots from deep. For instance, Christian Wood attempted six three-pointers in Houston’s win over Atlanta on Monday.
I’m also featuring Carter because of Mo Bamba’s ankle injury. Although the Orlando Magic expect him to play tonight, they could opt to reduce his workload, which would leave some extra volume for Carter to exploit.
Leg #3. Cole Anthony 6+ Assists
Related Straight Bet: Cole Anthony o6.5 Assists (+122 at FD Sportsbook)
Straight Bet Size: .25u
Anthony recorded a career-high in assists against the Hawks earlier this year. He earned 11 dimes that night, beating his previous best mark two. It’s never smart to bet on things like that to happen again, but Anthony has routinely recorded an above-average share of assists against the Hawks. Last year, he posted eight and six against them, and his six-assist showing came in just 23 minutes of action.
Anthony has finished with at least six assists in 12 of 22 starts this year, and he has gone for seven or more in 9 of 22. Meanwhile, the Hawks have permitted the most assists to opposing point guards this season (9.4). While that trend has cooled off of late, as Atlanta ranks 12th-best over their last seven games, I expect their recent improvements to wane here, allowing Anthony to eclipse his posted total.
Leg #4. Kevin Huerter 10+ Points
Related Straight Bet: N/A
Huerter looked atrocious in his last game against the Magic. He went for only four points, and Hawks head coach Nate McMillan gave him just 16 minutes of playing time. But we’re betting on a bounce-back showing from Red Velvet tonight for two reasons. First, the Hawks are relatively pressed for depth. De’Andre Hunter remains out, as does Bogdan Bogdanovic.
Bogdanovic’s absence is especially big news for Huerter. The small forward went for 20 points against the Magic in November, and Huerter could see some of those opportunities instead. Red Velvet also went for at least 10 points in every game against the Magic last year, so I’m optimistic that he’ll go over this teased-down total tonight.
Total Odds: +584 at FD Sportsbook
Parlay Bet Size: .2u
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.