NBA Picks & Predictions: +EV Best Bets for Monday (11/2)
With Thanksgiving just a few weeks away, you may find yourself wondering what you have to be thankful for. You know, such as a 15-game NBA slate like the one we have today. From these games, I'll pull the day’s best +EV NBA picks.
With every team in action, plenty of great options will pop up. The following are my top value picks for the day.
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Monday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Trail Blazers-Nuggets Alt Over 231.5 Points (+102)
Portland is solid on offense and not bad on defense. They’ve scored and allowed 120+ points in three out of five games. Denver has scored 120+ in two but allowed 120+ in three.
Three of the four games between them cleared 240 last season, with two reaching 260+ points. Denver has cleared this total in three out of five games; Portland has done so in two. But against a lackluster Nuggets defense, the Trail Blazers’ offense is in for a good night. Denver is averaging 114 points per game and should be good for at least that against Portland's defense
The official total is set at 229.5 (-115). For these high-powered offenses, the over is a solid bet. The total could move to 234.5 or 235.5, and the over would still be a solid wager. If you add a basket and bump it to 231.5, the odds shift to +102.
Trae Young Under 9.5 Assists (+110)
Trae Young is averaging 10.2 assists per game, making the over look like a decent bet. However, at -146, it has no value. But under 9.5 assists at +110? Much better. Young has finished under this total in three of his last four games. Orlando has injury issues and allows a league-high 30 assists per game.
However, based on Young’s play in the last few games, finishing under this total is a solid possibility, making the under a good value bet.
Brandon Miller 25+ Points (+132)
My first thought when I saw this prop was that it's wishful thinking for someone on one of the worst teams in the NBA to score 25+ points against the league’s No. 1 defense. But then I saw Brandon Miller put up 31 points against the Pistons last week, and he's been taking 20+ shots a game. Detroit will win this game, but Miller is a great bet to score 25+ by sheer volume alone.
Miller missed the mark in the two games since he scored 31 against the Pistons, but because of that 31, I see this prop as a great value play at +132.