NBA Picks & Predictions: Monday (5/11)
The NBA playoffs roll on Monday night with two more games. The Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers continue their Eastern Conference Semifinals series at 8:00 p.m. ET on NBC/Peacock, while the defending NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder look to eliminate the Los Angeles Lakers at 10:30 p.m. ET in Game 4 of their Western Conference series on Prime Video. Let’s build our bankroll with our best NBA picks & predictions for Monday, May 11th.
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Monday’s Best NBA Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
Detroit Pistons (+140) at Cleveland Cavaliers (-170) | O/U 212.5 (-115/-105)
The Pistons headed to Cleveland for Game 3 on Saturday, looking to take a commanding 3-0 lead in the series. The Cavaliers finally showed a little bit of heart, posting the 116-109 victory in a must-win situation, covering as 5.5-point favorites while the Over (211.5) connected. The home team is now 3-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in the three meetings so far.
The Cavs benefited from the change of venue, hitting 58% (43-of-74) on their home court, and 38% (12-of-32) from distance, while the Pistons were just 45% (41-of-91) from the field, and 36% (9-of-25) from behind the 3-point arc. Cleveland probably would have had a little more breathing room if not for a dismal 64% (18-of-28) mark from the free-throw line, leaving 10 valuable points on the floor. If things tighten up for Game 3, the Cavs cannot be that bad again. The Pistons were 82% (18-of-22) from the charity stripe.
Detroit was plus-7 in rebounding, including a dominant 17-to-5 offensive rebounding margin. Detroit also had 12 steals, to just three for Cleveland, while the Cavs were only plus-1 in turnover margin. Still, Cleveland led 75% of the game, and Donovan Mitchell posted 35 points on 13-of-24 from the field, and 2-of-8 from downtown, while adding 10 rebounds and four assists. James Harden supplied 19 points on 8-of-14 shooting, including 3-of-7 from distance. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley blocked two shots apiece.
Cade Cunningham did his best, going for 27 points with 10 rebounds and 10 assists for the triple-double, but he also had eight turnovers, while spending some time in foul trouble. Tobias Harris dropped 21 points as a solid secondary option.
The home team has won five in a row in this series dating back to Feb. 27 in the regular season, but the Cavaliers have a slight 3-2 ATS edge in that span. They’re a strong play as slight favorites in Game 4, and we’ll go high on the total, but it should only go slightly Over, so don’t get carried away.
Picks: Cavaliers -3.5 (-110) & Over 212.5 Points (-115)
Oklahoma City Thunder (-500) at Los Angeles Lakers (+375) | O/U 214.5 (-110/-110)
The defending NBA champions look poised to keep their belt, or at least make it extremely difficult for other teams to take it from there. OKC swept the Phoenix Suns in the first round, and it is on the verge of doing the same to LeBron James and the Lakers with a 3-0 series lead heading into Crypto.com Arena on Monday for Game 4.
Oklahoma City won and covered both games at home by 18 points, covering as a double-digit in each of the installments. In Game 3, OKC belted the Lakers 131-108 as an 8.5-point favorite, pushing the purple and gold to the brink of elimination. The Over (211.5) cashed in Game 3 for the second consecutive game.
Oklahoma City shot 56% (53-of-94) for the second consecutive game, and it was 45% (17-of-38) from downtown, while going 80% (8-of-10) from the free-throw line. The Thunder was plus-6 in the rebounding category, while posting six more steals in Game 3. It also had two more blocks, while Los Angeles committed seven more turnovers. The Lakers also conceded 30 points off turnovers, to just 11 allowed for OKC.
It’s been unfortunate for Los Angeles that Luka Doncic (hamstring) has been sidelined for the entire playoffs due to a strained left hamstring, and it’s uncertain how much of a difference, if any, he would have made in this series. OKC is rolling, but he certainly would have been extremely beneficial to L.A., and we might have had a little bit longer of a series.
The Thunder have won all three games in this series by 18+ points, an average margin of victory of 19.7 points per game (PPG). They’re also 3-0 ATS, while the Over has cashed in each of the past two outings. Why get away from what’s working? We’ll take the Thunder to get the job done, and we’ll go high on the total.
Picks: Thunder -10.5 (-115) & Over 214.5 Points (-110)
Joe Williams is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Joe, check out his archive and follow him @winwithjoe