NBA Picks & Predictions: Saturday (11/7)
Saturday's slate features seven games, including a Mexico City game between the Nuggets and Pacers. Below, I make a pick for that contest, then explain what I expect when the Knicks face the Cavaliers and the Rockets battle the Suns. Here are the best NBA picks for Saturday, November 7th.
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Saturday’s Best NBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers
I'm surprised to see the Pacers' team total set so high for a couple of reasons. First, the Pacers are only averaging 111.2 points per game. While the listed total matches their season average, the Pacers have scored more than 111 points in only three of their nine games this season. They've scored 107 or fewer points in three consecutive contests, and in five of their last six overall.
Second, the Nuggets haven't been terrible defensively this season. They're allowing 114.7 points per game and are holding teams to 46.8% shooting from the field. The Nuggets have held three of their seven opponents below 110 points, including the Pelicans and Raptors, the league’s third- and sixth-highest-scoring teams, respectively.
Pick: Pacers Team Total Under 111.5 Points (-102)
New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers
The under has been nearly a sure thing in Knicks games this season, hitting in six out of eight contests. The last time the Knicks played, the over hit, but only because New York scored 135 points against the league's worst scoring defense. The Cavaliers allow 114.7 points per game and held the 76ers to 95 points last night.
This season, when a Knicks game total is set below 230, the under has hit all five times. This is primarily because the Knicks' defense has been excellent, allowing just 105.1 points per game. That's tied for the second-best mark in the NBA.
The Cavaliers are the fourth-highest-scoring team in the NBA, averaging 119.2 points per game. However, the Knicks have allowed more than 111 points just once this season. That came against the Bulls last Wednesday, and in a rematch just one week later, the Knicks held the Bulls to just 105 points.
I also don't expect the Knicks to score much in this game. They average just 110 points per game, and they've scored more than 111 points only twice this season. Both performances came against the Bulls, who allow nearly 130 points per game. The Cavaliers are averaging just 114.7 points per game.
Pick: Under 225.5 Points (-114)
Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns
The Rockets have scored 111 or fewer points in three of their last four games, but I love tonight's matchup. The Suns just held the Magic to 104 points, but the Magic also average just 105.5 points per game, the second-lowest total in the NBA this season. In every other game this season, the Suns have allowed at least 116 points.
The Suns are allowing 121.4 points per game, and teams are shooting 48.3% against them. That ranks fifth-worst in the league. While the Rockets rank 28th in possessions per game (101.2), they also rank second in field-goal rate (49%).
I expect the Rockets to shoot over 50% in this favorable matchup. They should also knock down plenty of three-pointers, as the Suns allow teams to shoot 39.4% from deep, the third-highest rate in the league.
Pick: Rockets Team Total Over 115.5 Points (-110)
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.