NBA Picks & Predictions: Spurs vs. Thunder (Monday)
The NBA playoffs continue on Monday, as the Western Conference Finals get underway. The defending NBA Champion Oklahoma City Thunder host the San Antonio Spurs in Game 1 at Paycom Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock. Here are our best NBA picks & predictions for Monday, May 18th.
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Monday’s Best NBA Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
San Antonio Spurs (+198) at Oklahoma City Thunder (-240) | O/U 220.5 (-112/-108)
You kinda, sorta, almost knew it would be these two, right? The Western Conference Finals get going on Monday night, and if the Thunder wants to return to the NBA Finals to defend their crown, they have to figure out a way to solve their kryptonite.
San Antonio won four of the five meetings in the regular season, including on December 13th in the 2025 NBA Cup semifinals in Las Vegas. The Spurs won outright that night as an 11-point underdog, and San Antonio is 3-1-1 against the spread (ATS) in the five meetings this season. The under cashed in each of the two regular-season meetings in Oklahoma City, while the over was 2-0 in two meetings at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio.
To get to this point, the Spurs picked up a first-round series win in five games over the Portland Trail Blazers, while easing by the Minnesota Timberwolves in six games, including routs by at least 29 points in the final two games of that series.
The Spurs are 4-1 ATS in the past five playoff games and 8-3 ATS in the postseason. The Over cashed in each of the final five games of the Minnesota series. San Antonio is rolling offensively, scoring 126+ points in three of the previous five outings. On the road in the playoffs, the Spurs are 4-1 straight up (SU)/ATS, with the over going 4-1.
For the defending champs, they’re eight up and eight down so far in the postseason. The Thunder topped the Phoenix Suns in four games in the first round, going 2-2 ATS while the over was 3-1. In the second round, the Thunder showed LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers the door, sweeping them with three wins of 18+ points and going 3-1 ATS. The over was again 3-1 in the four-game series.
Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was named NBA MVP over the weekend, his second consecutive season winning the award. He averaged a ridiculous 33.8 points per game in the series with the Suns, while adding eight assists per game. He averaged a more sensible 24.5 points and 6.3 assists in the Lakers series. Gilgeous-Alexander has racked up at least six assists in seven of his eight playoff games.
Oddly enough, Gilgeous-Alexander has misfired on a combined five three-point attempts in both of his previous Game 1 matchups during these playoffs. However, he was 10-for-26 (38.5%) in the other games.
For San Antonio, it all starts with Victor Wembanyama, who is navigating the waters of his first NBA playoffs run with aplomb. He averaged 21 points and 8.8 rebounds per game in four games against Portland. He capped off that series by averaging 22 points, 13 rebounds and 6.5 blocks across the final two games.
In the Minnesota series, Wembanyama had at least 15 rebounds in four of the first five games. The only time he didn’t hit the mark was in Game 4, as he was ejected for an aggressive elbow on a rebound. He also had three or more blocks in four of the six games, including that ridiculous NBA playoff record 12 blocks in Game 1.
This is going to be a heck of a series, and based on San Antonio’s dominance in the series, let’s take the points. And we’ll go with the over based on each team’s playoff trends.
Picks: Thunder +6.5 (-110) & Over 220.5 Points (-112)
Joe Williams is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Joe, check out his archive and follow him @winwithjoe