NBA Picks & Predictions: Spurs vs. Thunder (Tuesday)
The NBA playoffs continue tonight, with a pivotal Game 5 in the Western Conference Finals at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City at 8:30 p.m. ET on NBC Peacock. Here are our best NBA picks & predictions for Tuesday, May 26th.
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Tuesday’s Best NBA Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
San Antonio Spurs (+138) at Oklahoma City Thunder (-164) | O/U 217.5 (-106/-114)
Well, the New York Knicks are through to the NBA Finals, so the winner of this series already knows who their opponent will be. They just have to get through this series first.
While we had a sweep in the Eastern Conference Finals, which was rather anticlimactic, we’re having a knockdown, drag-out fight in the Western Conference Finals, with the series tied 2-2. Both teams have won on each other’s floor and, perhaps surprisingly, the past two games have been decided by double digits.
In Game 4 at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio on Sunday, the Spurs bounced back with a 103-82 win as 3.5-point favorites, as the under (219.5) cashed. That was huge after falling 123-108 in Game 3. The 41-point drop-off for the Thunder was rather stunning, masking the fact that the Spurs’ offensive production dropped for the fourth consecutive game since a high of 122 points in Game 1.
The Spurs shot just 39% (35-of-90) from the field and 27% (9-of-33) from behind the three-point line. San Antonio was also just 75% (24-of-32) from the free-throw line. On the flip side, while the Thunder were an impressive 89% (16-of-18) from the charity stripe, all other marks were lower. Oklahoma City shot just 33% (30-of-91) from the field, and only 18% (6-of-33) from long distance.
San Antonio was +5 in rebounding, including +3 on the offensive glass, while posting three more assists, two more steals and five more blocks, which tends to happen with block machine Victor Wembanyama. Oklahoma City was surprisingly sloppy with the rock, turning it over 20 times, to just 13 for San Antonio. The Spurs nearly led wire-to-wire, as they were ahead 96% of the time, while the defending champs led for just 3% of the game, briefly by a single point.
Julian Champagnie is glad things ended the way they did, as he was abysmal with just one of his seven shots falling for two points. Wembanyama had his back, going for 33 points, including three triples, with eight rebounds, five assists, three blocks and two assists. All five Spurs starters had at least one block, and seven different players swatted shots, including Luke Kornet coming off the pine for two blocks in mop-up duty. It wasn’t a good day to shoot for the Thunder.
Isaiah Hartenstein had a decent game, going for 12 points on 6-of-11 shooting, but he was the only Thunder player who made more shots than he missed. He also ended up with seven rebounds and three assists. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander wasn’t terrible, going for 19 points, seven assists, four rebounds and two steals, while hitting all seven of his free-throw attempts. But the rest of his supporting cast needs to be better, and Gilgeous-Alexander needs to be much more productive in the scoring department.
At home, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 27, 10.5 and three steals per game against the Spurs in this series. He is averaging 26 points per game at Paycom Center in six postseason games overall, so expect a bump in scoring for the two-time MVP.
Oklahoma City is 4-2 against the spread (ATS) in six home playoff games, while the over is 4-1 in the past five games on its home floor. As such, we’re going to look for the defending champs to bounce back, feeding off the crowd’s energy and pushing the Spurs to the brink of elimination, while also backing the over.
Picks: Thunder -4.5 (-106) & Over 217.5 Points (-106)
Joe Williams is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Joe, check out his archive and follow him @winwithjoe