NBA Picks & Predictions: Thursday (4/23)
The first round of the NBA playoffs is heating up. Three Game 3 matchups are on the schedule for Thursday, with two series tied 1-1. Let's take a look at the matchups for our best NBA picks & predictions.
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Thursday’s Best NBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks
The Knicks left New York with a sour taste in their mouths after blowing a 12-point lead headed into the fourth quarter of Game 2. The Knicks went cold in the fourth quarter and managed to produce just 15 points, allowing a flurry of good looks for Atlanta that resulted in the Hawks tying the series.
New York did not replicate their hot shooting from Game 1, but their rebounding advantage showed up again in a big way. The Knicks are a top-five team when it comes to rebounding the ball on both the offensive and defensive ends. This is a key area where they have a decided advantage over the Hawks. So long as they can continue to win the battle of the boards, the shooting will come back around as they were a top-10 team all season in three-point, mid-range and overall field-goal rate.
The Hawks played at a torrid pace all year. They ranked in the top four in the league in possessions per game, and although the first two games in New York were played at the Knicks' preferred pace, we should see something different with the home crowd in Atlanta backing the team.
The Knicks were a worse defensive team on the road all season by nearly every key metric. Atlanta can take advantage of that and score on this team behind a raucous home crowd. With the Knicks also poised for a better shooting performance than Game 2, I will be on the over for this key Game 3 matchup.
Pick: Over 216.5 Points (-108)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors
How do the Raptors get back into this series and avoid the dreaded 0-3 hole against the Cavaliers? A way to start would be to slow the game down. These teams have averaged 98.5 possessions per game in each of the first two contests. This is advantageous for the Cavaliers, as their big men and slashing wings are getting efficient looks at the rim, which is the biggest defensive weakness for Toronto.
By slowing the game down, Toronto will limit possessions and not allow the Cavaliers to build up a big lead. The Raptors are also comfortable playing at a slower pace. They ranked 22nd in possessions per game during the regular season and had the longest average defensive possessions in the entire league.
Cleveland has been shooting over 50% from the floor this series, and with almost 99 possessions per game, they've scored 126 and 115 points, respectively, in the first two games. For Toronto to give itself a chance, it will need to slow things down and limit those opportunities. I'll be betting on this game plan and playing the under in Game 3.
Pick: Under 220.5 Points (-114)
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves
In Game 2 on Monday night in Denver, the Timberwolves delivered a strong performance in the fourth quarter to tie this series at a game apiece. It was a fantastic shooting performance with Donte DiVincenzo, Julius Randle and Bones Hyland combining to go 9-for-15 from deep. Denver led for the vast majority of the game, but a late flurry from Minnesota was the difference.
Despite the game being on the road, there is plenty of reason to believe the Nuggets will bounce back and regain home-court advantage on Thursday night. Even though Denver has been outshot in both games, they've managed to get to the free-throw line often, which has given them plenty of opportunities to score. We can expect this trend to continue since they ranked in the top four in free-throw rate during the regular season, and Minnesota was a team that fouled a lot.
The Denver offense against the Timberwolves’ defense is a strength-on-strength matchup. So far, the Nuggets’ offense has been the stronger unit, scoring 115 points per game. Minnesota needed a scorching shooting performance in Game 2 for a five-point win. Even though they're at home, Minnesota should cool down a bit, and the better team will show itself in Game 3.
Pick: Nuggets -1.5 (-115)