NBA Picks & Predictions: Thursday (5/7)
Thursday features two important Game 2 conference semifinal matchups. First, Cleveland will look to even the series in Detroit. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City and Los Angeles will play, with the Lakers looking to avoid a difficult 0-2 hole. Let's take a deeper look at both matchups and go over our top NBA picks.
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Thursday’s Best NBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons
Both of these teams came into Game 1 fresh off a seven-game series in the first round. However, out of the gate, only one team looked it. Detroit sped out to a 37-21 lead in the first quarter, and although Cleveland chipped away all game, Detroit never looked back, taking a 1-0 series lead with a 111-101 victory.
Looking at the box score, the teams played pretty even. Cleveland barely edged out the field goal battle while Detroit had a slight edge in rebounding. The two key stats that Detroit excelled in and made the difference in the game were free-throw attempts and turnovers.
Detroit attempted 35 free throws, more than twice the 16 that Cleveland put up. Detroit was the highest fouling defense in the league all season and allowed 28.4 free-throw attempts per game in the opening series to Orlando.
Cleveland was only 15th in free-throw rate during the season. Still, you can expect them to be more aggressive trying to get to the rim, especially Donovan Mitchell, who made some public comments about the amount of contact being allowed after attempting only two free throws in Game 1.
As for turnovers, Cleveland committed 20 in the game, including seven by James Harden. The Detroit defense was tenacious, picking the Cleveland ball-handler’s pockets all game.
This was an area Detroit thrived in all year, but if they're picking up early fouls at the rim, they might have to tone down some of the aggressiveness. This is a recipe that spells more points for Cleveland.
The Cavaliers started finding their rhythm in the fourth quarter, and I expect them to make some adjustments to lessen the free-throw discrepancy. They're one of the few teams with the size to match up with Detroit down low. This is a perfect opportunity to ignite a little more on offense and even the series.
Picks: Cavaliers +3.5 (-114) & Over 215.5 Points (-110)
Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder made light work of the Lakers in Game 1 in Oklahoma City. The Thunder’s tenacious defense held the Lakers to just 90 points on 41% shooting from the field, and 10-of-30 from deep. Los Angeles attempted only 13 free throws in the game despite being the top-rated free-throw team in the NBA during the regular season.
The Thunder forced 17 turnovers from the Lakers and held Austin Reaves to a putrid 3-of-16 shooting night from the field, including going 0-of-5 from deep. Despite all this, Los Angeles still had 26 assists on just 35 field goals - a 74.3% rate that would outpace the best team in the league this year.
It's hard to imagine the Lakers put up an offensive dud quite like they did in Game 1. Oklahoma City ultimately proved to be too much for Los Angeles, but the Lakers battled early to keep Game 1 within striking distance and have a chance to cover. This Game 2 spread is also heavily favoring Oklahoma City, and there is some value there.
The Lakers are going to find more ways to get to the free-throw line in Game 2. They should be able to finish off more possessions and avoid the turnovers that plagued them on Tuesday.
Additionally, you have to expect a bounce-back game from Reaves. He may not be 100% right now, but he's better than the performance he showed in Game 1, and he'll need to. The Lakers are too talented and too experienced to get blown out in back-to-back games. I like them to cover on Thursday night.
Pick: Lakers +15.5 (-110)