NBA Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (5/6)
Wednesday's slate features the New York Knicks hosting the Philadelphia 76ers and the Minnesota Timberwolves visiting the San Antonio Spurs. Below, I highlight why I anticipate a big game from the Knicks’ offense and point out a very lucrative price for a parlay on Rudy Gobert and Victor Wembanyama. Here are the best NBA picks for Wednesday, May 6th.
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Wednesday’s Best NBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks
After dropping 137 points in Game 1, the Knicks have now scored at least 112 points in four of their five games against the 76ers this season. The only time they failed to hit that mark was when they scored 107 in the first meeting between these two teams back on December 19th.
The Knicks are averaging 120.6 points per game in the postseason, up from an average of 116.5 during the regular season. And I'm particularly concerned about the 76ers’ three-point defense.
In the regular season, the 76ers allowed just 13.4 three-pointers per game, but in the postseason, they're allowing 16 per game. In Game 1, the Knicks shot 19-of-37 from deep. And while they probably won't shoot that well in Game 2, this is a team that averaged 14.2 made three-pointers per game during the regular season.
Pick: Knicks Team Total Over 111.5 Points (-112)
Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs
After their Game 1 loss, the Spurs are now just 1-3 against the Timberwolves this season. Additionally, the Spurs’ only win was by three points in San Antonio. Yet, I'm still backing the Spurs to win this game by double figures.
Since February 1st, the Spurs are 34-6, with 27 of their 34 victories coming by at least 10 points. And during their current 40-game stretch, the Spurs have followed up all of their losses with a double-digit win.
Anthony Edwards is listed as questionable for this game. While it was impressive for the Timberwolves to win despite him playing just 25 minutes in Game 1, I don't see them getting the same result against a desperate San Antonio team that knows it can't go down 0-2 before heading to Minnesota. I expect Edwards to play, but with limited minutes, he won't be nearly as effective as the Timberwolves need him to be.
Finally, though the Timberwolves’ three-point defense has been great, I expect the Spurs to dramatically improve after shooting 28% from deep in Game 1, as they shot 35.9% from beyond the arc during the regular season.
Pick: Spurs -9.5 (-110)
Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs
Victor Wembanyama was terrible from the floor in Game 1, making just five of his 17 field-goal attempts. Yet, while he only scored 11 points, he still managed to pull down 15 rebounds.
Meanwhile, Rudy Gobert pulled down 10 rebounds, despite playing just 30 minutes. He averaged 34.8 minutes per game in the first round against the Denver Nuggets, playing at least 36 minutes in four of the six games. In that series, Gobert grabbed at least 12 rebounds in three of the final four games, grabbing 15 in Game 4.
These are two of the best rebounders in the league, with each averaging 11.5 boards per game during the regular season. Wembanyama has grabbed at least 14 rebounds in back-to-back games, and though he struggled a bit in the first round against the Portland Trail Blazers, he ended the regular season with at least 13 rebounds in seven out of the last eight games. Gobert has been similarly hot, with at least 12 rebounds in 11 of his last 18 games.
Pick: Rudy Gobert & Victor Wembanyama to Each Record 12+ Rebounds (+204)
For more of my picks and predictions all season long, subscribe to BettingPros. Right now, new subscribers receive a 20% discount that grants access to picks, predictions, and odds comparison tools.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.