NBA Play-In Tournament Player Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (4/16)
Here we go. We have finally made it to the NBA Play-In Tournament. I am excited. The season has been fun, and we got some goliaths at the top of the food chain, but these are lining up to be a very exciting playoffs.
If you're joining us for the first time, welcome. It's been a great year, and I hope we continue that trend tonight. We have a pair of teams playing tonight with some lower totals than we’re used to. As always, monitor injury news and lineup announcements.
The best way to stay sharp regarding NBA player props is by staying on top of the news. The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value. Let's get to it.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Wednesday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 4-2 | Season: 144-101
Josh Giddey Under 28.5 Points + Rebounds (-115 at bet365)
With Josh Giddey returning from a hand injury, it's interesting to see his line at a number he's only covered in 27% of games this season. Call me basic, but when the playoffs start, I usually look to aim towards betting unders. The stakes are much higher, the play is a bit more methodical and, most importantly, the defense will be better across the board. That's what makes it so entertaining to watch.
It's also important that Miami was a top-10 defense in the second half with the fourth-slowest pace of play in the league. Giddey has averaged 14 points and eight boards a game. While he's been playing consistently better for the new look Bulls, this number is still too high. Miami has allowed the seventh-fewest points to opposing point guards and a below-average number of boards. It's a juiced line, but it's a clear bet to kick off some playoff betting.
Keegan Murray Over 16.5 Points + Rebounds (-120 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
I'm not obsessed with the idea of betting unders in the playoffs; I just have to have a little fun. I didn't exactly expect Keegan Murray to be the hill I die on, but here we are. It's a surprise Dallas is in this position at all, honestly, but their metrics still aren't promising. Their defense has ranked 24th since the All-Star break, and they have still sustained a top-seven pace in the league.
It's the perfect spot for Murray at home, where he's been performing better. Also, for a sustained two months, he's been scoring 13 points with almost six boards a night. That's plenty of leeway for a line set at 16.5 in a pace-up spot against a weak defense that is the second-worst rebounding team in the league.
Tyler Herro Over 35.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
The player I'm most confident in hitting his overs tonight is Tyler Herro. The Miami point guard has averaged a 31% usage rate over the last two weeks with 26 points, five boards, and nearly five assists a night.
He's going up against the fastest-pace post-All-Star break squad against the 19th-ranked league defense on the season. No team has allowed more combined points + rebounds + assists to opposing point guards this year, either with the second-most points and most assists allowed. Feel free to bet some alts because Herro might go nuclear tonight.
Anthony Davis Under 43.5 Points + Assists + Rebouds (-122 at FanDuel Sportsbok)
As a bonus fourth bet, I'm fading the Mavericks center to show up in his first playoff game in the blue and silver. Anthony Davis is still dealing with a left adductor strain and is a hard player to trust with eight games over his last two months.
The books expect Davis to evolve tonight in some way based on his averages with Dallas. While Sacramento's defense isn't anything to write home about, they will also slow the Mavs down. Davis also performs worse on the road, so I don't expect to sweat this one much.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.