NBA Play of the Day for December 4th, 2019

by Raju Byfield |
Dec 04, 2019

Luka Doncic versus Karl Anthony-Towns is exciting enough to get even casual NBA fans interested in this contest. Quite frankly, if you are an NBA fan and a battle between two of the best young players in the entire NBA does not get you excited, you are probably a little dead inside. Two of the surprises of the Western Conference will go head to head, but there is little doubt as to who the overwhelming favorite in this contest is. Letâ€™s dig in.

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Details

Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -3.5 on the Dallas Mavericks. The consensus over/under total opened at 230.5 points. The consensus point spread has increased to -4. The over/under total has dropped to 230.
Current Line: Dallas -4
O/U: 233
Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas
Start Time: 8:30 PM EST, Wednesday, December 4th
Last Meeting: Minnesota defeated Dallas 110-108 â€” April 9, 2019

Overview

The 10-9 Minnesota Timberwolves have been enjoying a breakout season from star guard Andrew Wiggins, and they currently find themselves in seventh place in the Western Conference. This remains a team with a solid collection of talent that should be able to wrestle their way to the postseason if they can continue to take care of business on the road. One has to believe that they will find a way to correct their 3-7 home record.

The next nine games of the season will be very telling in regards to where this team actually stands from a competitiveness standpoint. Starting with tonight, they have the Mavericks, the Los Angeles Lakers, the Los Angeles Clippers, the Utah Jazz, the Portland Trailblazers, and the Denver Nuggets. The Timberwolves will be looking to pull off the upset tonight and begin their four-game road trip with a bang.

The 14-6 Dallas Mavericks have won eight of their last nine games behind the stellar play of 20-year-old phenom Luka Doncic. The Mavericks have surprised the entire NBA world this season â€” likely along with members of their own organization. A team most may not have even projected to make the playoffs in 2019-20 now looks like a lock for the postseason, and they currently sit in fourth place in the strong Western Conference.

They have recorded marquee wins over the Los Angeles Lakers and the Houston Rockets this season. Both victories came on the road. Luka Doncic is one of the most entertaining players in the league to watch, but he has also become one of the toughest players to guard. The Mavericks will look to become the third Western Conference team to 15 wins with a win tonight over the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Trends

Dallas is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests against Minnesota.
Under is 4-1 in the last five contests between these two teams played in Dallas.
Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests played in Dallas.
Minnesota is 9-9 ATS on the season.
Minnesota is 7-2 ATS on the road this season.
Dallas is 12-8 ATS on the season.
Dallas is 4-6 ATS at home this season.
Minnesota is 6-1 in their last seven road contests against teams with a winning home record.
Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in their last six contests in which they were road underdogs of 0.5-4.5 points.
Minnesota is 4-0 ATS in their last four road contests.
Minnesota is 4-0 ATS in their last four contests against a road underdog.
Dallas is 8-1 ATS in their last nine contests.
Dallas is 4-0 in their last four contests as a home favorite.
Dallas is 6-0 ATS in their last six contests as a favorite.
Dallas is 6-1 ATS in their last seven contests following a straight-up win.
Under is 6-1 in Minnesotaâ€™s last seven contests.
Under is 9-1 in Minnesotaâ€™s last 10 road contests against teams with winning home records.
Under is 4-1 in Minnesotaâ€™s last five contests as an underdog.
Under is 4-1 in Minnesotaâ€™s last five contests following a loss ATS.
Over is 4-1 in Dallasâ€™ last five contests as a favorite.
Under is 4-0 in Dallasâ€™ last four contests against teams with a winning record.
Over is 6-2 in Dallasâ€™ last eight contests as a home favorite.
Over is 12-5 in Dallasâ€™ last 17 home contests.

Prop Bets

Dallas Mavericks first half -2.5 (-104)
With the Mavericks being one of the hottest first half teams in the NBA (they lead the league with 60.7 points per game in the first half), this play is a no-brainer. Of course, we will stop short of offering a guarantee on a free play, but this is genuinely about as close as it gets. The Mavericks lead at the end of the first half by an average of 5.7 points, a number that jumps to 7.7 when playing at home. -2.5 is actually the perfect number here, as -3 would carry a significantly lower win probability. The low juice on this play at FanDuel suggests the early money has come in on the Timberwolves. Chalk that up to sharps overthinking a back-to-back. Lock this one in as a multi-unit play.

Luka Doncic over 32.5 points (-110)
I wrote â€œLuka Doncic overâ€ before I even saw what the posted total was. It is important to note that this line may drop by game time as it did when the Mavs played the Lakers. It dropped from 31.5 to 29.5. If Luka plays the whole contest, he is all but assured to clear the 32.5 point total. Luka is well-rested after sitting out the entire fourth quarter of last nightâ€™s victory over New Orleans, and he could clear this total by the end of the third quarter. Luka has cleared 32.5 in five of his last eight contests, and seven of his last 11.

Aside from a â€œgetting rested in the fourth quarterâ€ fail against the Cleveland Cavaliers, the last three teams he failed to clear this total against came when he was pitted against three of the top defensive teams in the league: the Los Angeles Clippers, the Toronto Raptors, and the Los Angeles Lakers. Stay on top of this line as gametime approaches in anticipation of a potential drop in the number.

The juice is currently even at -110 on both sides, so this is what we will want to monitor. If the juice starts going up on the under, we can try to wait it out in the hopes of a more favorable number closer to game time. However, if the juice on the over starts to go up, that can be taken as a sign that there will be no change in the line, and that we should lock it at FanDuel. Consider this a potential multi-unit play depending on what your bankroll health is looking like.

Bottom Line

The -3.5 line this game opened at was obviously more attractive, but there is still a strong value on the Mavericks at -4 for this contest. The Mavs have won eight of their last nine contests, but are also 8-1 against the spread over that span. 4-0 in their last four games as a home favorite, there is little reason to believe that the Mavericks will not cover such a small spread in this contest. We get the back to back benefit here, as the line would likely have been set higher if the Mavericks were playing on one or more days of rest. With that being said, those who have been closely following the Mavericks will recognize that Luka Doncic is often rested for the entire fourth quarter in blowouts, and yesterdayâ€™s victory over the New Orleans Pelicans was no different.

Five of the Timberwolvesâ€™ nine losses this season have been by more than 16 points. With the Mavericks set as our strong lean for this contest, we then proceed to our live odds page to do some line shopping. As such, we can see that this contest is still offered at -3.5 at BetMGM, making their book where we want to place our action for this contest. Lock this one in before the book moves the line to -4 like the rest of the books that make up our expert consensus.

Pick: Dallas Mavericks -3.5 (-115)