NBA Play of the Day for February 10th, 2020

by Raju Byfield |
Feb 10, 2020

The new-look Atlanta Hawks are set to take on their division rivals in the Orlando Magic. The Hawks have turned their season around in both play and talent, and are a .500 team over their last 14 games. A far cry from a team that started the season with 32 losses in their first 40 contests (a winning percentage of .200). Despite losing eight of their last 10 games, the Magic still find themselves in eighth place in the Eastern Conference, that is how bad the East has been behind them this season. The Magic are still comfortably in playoff position, with their most legitimate threat coming from what is now a formidable Atlanta Hawks team. It is confounding that although the Hawks beat the Magic twice already this season, they have opened at +6 point underdogs, and now sit at +6.5. The Hawks are the initial lean, but letâ€™s see if form and trends bear out Atlanta as the smarter play.

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Details

Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -6 on the Orlando Magic. The consensus over/under total opened at 222 points. The point spread has held climbed to -6.5. The over/under total has held steady at 222.
Current Line: Orlando -6.5
O/U: 222
Location: Amway Center, Orlando, Florida
Start Time: 7:00 PM EST, Monday, February 10th
Last Meeting: Atlanta defeated Orlando 101-93 â€“ December 30, 2019

Overview

The Atlanta Hawks sit at 15-39 on the season. After winning just eight of their first 40 games, they have won seven of their last 14, and two of their last three contests. The Hawks made some serious upgrades to their frontcourt at the trade deadline by adding Clint Capela and Dwayne Dedmon at the five, which will allow John Collins to play at his natural four spot. The timing of the trades for Capela and Dedmon were curious given that the Hawks would prefer to have more ping pong balls as opposed to more wins, but the chance at acquiring a top defensive center in Clint Capela, and Dwayne Dedmon, who they lost in free agency this past offseason, was simply too good to pass up when weighed against the odds of actually coming away with a top-two pick. Atlanta has won the first two games of this series (one win came without Trae Young), and will be looking to win the season series with a win against Orlando tonight.

The 22-31 Orlando Magic have lost eight of their last nine contests. After losing their last four home contests, they still sit at a respectable 13-13 at home on the season. The Magic were relatively quiet at the trade deadline but did pick up James Ennis from the Philadelphia 76ers. Ennis is expected to make his debut for the Magic tonight but is nothing more than an end of the rotation player. Jonathan Issac continues to rehab from his knee injury but is expected back at sometime this season after the NBA refused the Magicâ€™s disabled player exception request on their star forward. The Magic have dropped the first two games of the season to their division rivals in the Atlanta Hawks and will be looking to get their first win of the four-game season series with a win tonight.

Trends

Atlanta us 25-28-1 ATS on the season.
Atlanta is 10-18 ATS on the road this season.
Orlando is 22-29-2 ATS on the season.
Orlando is 9-16-1 ATS at home this season.
Atlanta is 5-4-1 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Atlanta is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road contests.
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in their last five contests played on zero days of rest.
Atlanta is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six contests against teams with losing records.
Orlando is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Orlando is 0-5 ATS in their last five home contests.
Orlando is 1-8 ATS in their last nine contests.
Orlando is 7-2 ATS in their last nine contests against teams with losing records.
Over is 11-3 in Atlantaâ€™s last 14 contests.
Over is 6-1 in Atlantaâ€™s last seven contests played on zero days of rest.
Over is 12-4 in Atlantaâ€™s last 16 contests as an underdog.
Over is 4-1 in Atlantaâ€™s last five Monday contests.
Under is 16-6-2 in Orlandoâ€™s last 24 contests.
Under is 7-0 in Orlandoâ€™s last seven home contests against teams with losing road records.
Under is 7-1 in Orlandoâ€™s last eight contests as a home favorite.
Under is 9-3-1 in Orlandoâ€™s last 13 contests as a favorite.

Prop Bets

John Collins over 19.5 points (-118)
John Collins has been on fire and is currently the top player prop play in basketball. He is averaging an exciting 26 points and 13.1 rebounds over his last seven games and shies no signs of slowing down. He has cleared 19.5 points in each of his last five contests, and in six of his last seven. Clint Capela will be out again tonight, which should allow him to log at least 32 minutes in tonightâ€™s contest. Collins is averaging 20.5 points on the season, a number that jumps to a star level 22.5 on the road, so there is no reason that this line should have been set at 19.5. The juice on this prop currently sits sat -118 and continues to rise. Lock this prop in as a multi-unit play before you read any further.

Bottom Line

The Atlanta Hawks are a stunning 5-5 in their last 10 contests. They have gone 5-4-1 against the spread over that same time frame. The Magic have gone 2-8 in their last 10 contests both straight up and against the spread. The new-look Hawks are arguably a better team than Orlando when healthy, and will be a tough out for a Magic team still without Jonathan Issac. Atlanta has defeated the Magic in both of their matchups so far this season, and one of those victories came without Trae Young in the lineup. The Hawks have a better chance than the odds suggest to win this contest straight up, so the +6.5 cushion is just a bonus. The +200 moneyline is very attractive, but we will instead focus on bankroll building. The spread carries a much higher win probability than the moneyline and is where we will focus our action for this contest.

Pick: Atlanta Hawks +6.5 (-115)