NBA Play of the Day for February 12th, 2020

by Raju Byfield |
Feb 12, 2020

The two teams at the very bottom of the Eastern Conference standings are set to square off, but thanks to some deadline trade action, and the presence of Trae Young, this matchup is a much more exciting one than some contests that feature teams higher in the standings. The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -1, but moved to -1.5 almost immediately, and may see further movement as the day progresses. Atlanta has been playing much better basketball as of late, and appears to be the lean. Letâ€™s see if form and trends agree. Letâ€™s dig in.

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Details

Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -1 on the Atlanta Hawks. The consensus over/under total opened at 233 points. The point spread has climbed to -1.5. The over/under total has held steady at 233.
Current Line: Atlanta -1.5
O/U: 233
Location: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, Ohio
Start Time: 7:00 PM EST, Wednesday, February 12th
Last Meeting: Cleveland defeated Atlanta 121-118 â€“ December 23, 2019

Overview

The Atlanta Hawks sit at 15-40 on the season. They have been playing much better as of late as they have won seven of their last 15 contests, a stark contrast from a team that won just eight of their first 40 games. The Hawks loaded up at the trade deadline, as they felt that landing Clint Capela and Dwayne Dedmon for spare parts was just too good to pass up. The Hawks are going to have some decisions to make regarding Clint Capela when he is healthy enough to return to the court. On one hand, they traded for him for a reason, as he can help them win games, and gives Trae Young a young all-star level center to grow with. On the other hand, he can help them win games. The 2020 NBA Draft is one of the weaker ones in recent memory, so ping pong balls in the lottery will be at a higher premium than usual. With a win tonight, the Hawks will be able to secure .500 ball over their last 16 contests.

The 13-40 Cleveland Cavaliers have lost each of their last six contests. They made the stunning acquisition of Andre Drummond at the trade deadline, but when one considers the laughable price tag of John Henson, Brandon Knight, and a second-round pick, some rival general managers whose teams are in playoff pushes are likely to be fired. Henson was a solid prospect but is nothing more than an end of bench depth piece. Brandon Knight was actually a very good prospect, but the former eighth overall pick has shot the ball at a G-League, sub-replacement level for his entire career. The Cavaliers can now offer Drummond the most money and can try to retain him, or can receive superior compensation (versus what they had to give up) in a sign-and-trade deal. While they are still far from an actual cohesive team, the Cavaliers now boast a core that features Andre Drummond, Kevin Love, Darius Garland, and Collin Sexton. Though the two-point guards still have some growing to do before they can help vault the Cavaliers into competing status, they have a more exciting core than some teams that will make the playoffs this season.

Trends

Atlanta is 25-29-1 ATS on the season.
Atlanta is 10-19 ATS on the road this season.
Cleveland is 22-30-1 ATS on the season.
Cleveland is 9-18-1 ATS at home this season.
Atlanta is 4-5-1 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in their last six road contests against teams with losing home records.
Atlanta is 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road contests.
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in their last five contests as a road favorite.
Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in their last seven Wednesday contests.
Cleveland is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Cleveland is 1-6 ATS in their last seven contests against teams with losing records.
Cleveland is 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 home contests.
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in their last five contests as a home underdog.
Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in their last six contests against teams with a winning percentage below .400.
Over is 12-3 in Atlantaâ€™s last 15 contests.
Over is 7-1 in Atlantaâ€™s last eight contests against teams with losing records.
Over 5-2 in Atlantaâ€™s last seven road contests.
Over is 6-1 in Atlantaâ€™s last seven road contests against teams with a home winning percentage below .400.
Over is 7-2 in Clevelandâ€™s last nine contests.
Over is 6-1 in Clevelandâ€™s last seven home contests.
Over is 11-1 in Clevelandâ€™s 12 contests against teams with losing records.
Over is 10-1 in Clevelandâ€™s last 11 home contests against teams with losing road records.

Prop Bets

John Collins over 21.5 points (-110)
John Collins is riding a hot streak, and player prop bettors are happy to go along for the ride. Collins is averaging 20.6 points per game on the season but has put up 26.5 points per contest over his last six. Collins has cleared 21.5 points in each of those contests and has done so in nine of his last 11. Clint Capela is not expected back until after the all-star break, so Collins will not be ceding any frontcourt time and should see upwards of 30 minutes on the floor. Collins has actually been better on the road this season where he averages 22.5 points per contest. The Cavaliers allow the sixth-most points per game and sport the second-worst field goal percentage against at .525. Collins is a multi-unit play that should be punched in before the juice starts to rise at FanDuel.

Bottom Line

The Atlanta Hawks are looking like the superior team in this contest, but the talent and records suggest that the gap that separates these two teams may be closer than people think. The consensus point spread currently sits at -1.5 but appears set to see some further movement throughout the day. The spread has already touched -2, and -2.5 at some of our partners on our live odds page. The Hawks received a major injection of talent at the trade deadline, but have yet to see Clint Capela make his team debut, and it is expected he will be out until after the all-star break. The Cavaliers made a stunning addition of their own by adding impending free agent Andre Drummond. This matchup could really go either way, so it is a surprise that the spread is seeing so much early movement, especially with the Cleveland Cavaliers playing at home. If you can still find the line at -1.5 or -2 on Atlanta or better at the time you read this, go with the Hawks. However, if the spread rises to -2.5 or higher, ignore the full game spread altogether in favor of the over/under. The trends for this contest both scream for the over, and even with the number at 233, there is a high win probability. Be sure to check our live odds page before placing your action for tonightâ€™s contest.

Pick: Atlanta Hawks -1.5 (-110) and/or Over 233 (-110)