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NBA Play of the Day for February 21st, 2020

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Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans are set to take on the Portland Trailblazers for the second time in two weeks. New Orleans leads the season series three games to zero, and they will be looking to gain a full game on Portland as they jockey for position behind the eighth-place Memphis Grizzlies. The consensus point spread for this contest opened at a very attractive -3, but it has already climbed to -4 and is expected to keep moving throughout the day. Let’s dig in. 

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -3 on the New Orleans Pelicans. The consensus over/under total opened at 235.5 points. The point spread has climbed to -4. The over/under total has climbed to 236.5.
  • Current Line: New Orleans -4
  • O/U: 236.5
  • Location: Moda Center, Portland, Oregon
  • Start Time: 10:30 PM EST, Friday, February 21st
  • Last Meeting: New Orleans defeated Portland 138-117 – February 11, 2020

Overview

The New Orleans Pelicans sit at 23-32 on the season. They have started to find their groove since Zion Williamson’s debut and have won six of their last nine contests. They have won the first three games of the season series against Portland. The Pelicans won those games by an average of 13.3 points. New Orleans is making a push, but they are still 5.5 games back of the Memphis Grizzlies for eighth place in the Western Conference. They have the easiest remaining schedule based on their opponents’ win/loss records, however, and they figure to remain in the hunt down to the wire. The Pelicans look to be at full strength tonight as they try to complete the series sweep. Brandon Ingram is expected back from a three-game absence, and he would provide a massive boost against a Portland team that will be without superstar player Damian Lillard.  

The Portland Trailblazers sit in ninth place in the Western Conference at 25-31. They have been solid at home this season, where they have a 15-11 record. Damian Lillard is expected to miss the next two to three games, and Portland is still awaiting the season debut of Jusuf Nurkic, who suffered a setback in his recovery when he added a calf injury to his list of ailments. Lillard missed the All-Star Game and will be hoping to come back to a Trailblazers team that has closed the gap on the eighth-place Memphis Grizzlies. They currently sit 3.5 games behind Memphis, with 36 games left to play. They have two head-to-head matchups against Memphis, and they will be able to make up a full game at a time with victories in those contests. Memphis has the toughest schedule in the league from an opponents’ win/loss perspective, so Portland has a legitimate opportunity to claw their way back into playoff position. Their first step in doing just that will be dispatching an upstart Pelicans team that has already beaten them three times this season. Portland will look to pull off the upset with strong performances from C.J. McCollum, Hassan Whiteside, Trevor Ariza, and Carmelo Anthony.

Trends 

  • New Orleans is 28-25-2 ATS on the season. 
  • New Orleans is 13-12-2 ATS on the road this season.
  • Portland is 23-31-2 ATS on the season.
  • Portland is 11-13-2 ATS at home this season.
  • New Orleans is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 contests. 
  • New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in their last six road contests. 
  • New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in their last six contests as a favorite. 
  • New Orleans is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 contests against teams with losing records.
  • New Orleans is 3-7-2 in their last 12 road contests against teams with winning home records.
  • Portland is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 contests. 
  • Portland is 5-0 ATS in their last five home contests. 
  • Portland is 1-4 ATS in their last five contests against teams with losing records.
  • Portland is 0-4 ATS in their last four contests played on three or more days of rest.
  • Portland is 2-5-2 ATS in their last nine contests as a home underdog.
  • Over is 5-0 in New Orleans’ last five games as a favorite.
  • Over is 8-2 in New Orleans’ last 10 road contests. 
  • Under is 7-2 in New Orleans’ last nine contests against teams with losing records.
  • Over is 7-2 in New Orleans’ last nine contests as a road favorite.
  • Over is 11-3 in Portland’s last 14 contests.
  • Over is 5-1 in Portland’s last six contests as an underdog.
  • Over is 5-1 in Portland’s last six Friday contests.
  • Over is 8-3 in Portland’s last 11 contests as a home underdog.

Prop Bets 

Zion Williamson over 22.5 points (-110)
Zion Williamson scored 31 points on Portland just last week, and he is an excellent bet to score 23 or more points tonight. Zion has scored 25 points per game over his last five contests and has cleared 23 points in each of his last two. The juice is on the under for this prop, as, despite his scoring average sitting at 22.1 points per game, Zion has actually scored more than 23 points just three times this season. With that said, Zion has already cleared 23 points against an easily beatable Portland defense. Portland is a team to target for player props, as they have the fifth-worst scoring defense and the fourth-worst defense based on field goal percentage. Lock this one in as a one-unit play at FanDuel.

Bottom Line 

New Orleans has dominated the season series against the Portland Trailblazers. They have won the first three games of the four-game series and will be facing a Blazers team without superstar Damian Lillard. Portland gets the benefit of plus points playing at home, but they have lost to the Pelicans by an average of 13.3 points this season. New Orleans won each of the contests by at least eight points. Portland would have been the play if Damian Lillard was healthy, as +4.5 points, is too big of a cushion to ignore against a team they are still ahead of in the standings. With that said, Lillard is not playing, and it is impossible not to be swayed by the head-to-head data. Recent trends also suggest that New Orleans is the smart play for this contest. The Pelicans are 5-1 against the spread in their last six road contests and are a surprising 5-1 in their last six contests as a favorite. Portland is 1-4 against the spread in their last five contests against teams with losing records. New Orleans is the play at BetMGM at -4.5 at -115. Lock this in as soon as possible, as the spread, which sits at -5 almost everywhere else, is going to rise. 

Pick: New Orleans Pelicans -4.5 (-115)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.