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NBA Play of the Day for February 24th, 2020

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The Atlanta Hawks will take on the Philadelphia 76ers in an early evening affair. Both the Hawks and the 76ers have been playing strong lately, with Philadelphia winning four of their last five and Atlanta pulling off two straight upsets since the All-Star break. The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -8 on the Philadelphia 76ers, and it has already moved to -8.5. Ben Simmons is expected to be out tonight, making the Hawks the potential lean. Let’s dig in to uncover whether or not the Hawks are indeed the team to roll with, in what could be an exciting contest.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -8 on the Philadelphia 76ers. The consensus over/under total opened at 227.5 points. The point spread has climbed to -8.5. The over/under total has climbed to 228.5.
  • Current Line: Philadelphia -8.5
  • O/U: 228.5
  • Location: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
  • Start Time: 7:00 PM EST, Monday, February 24th
  • Last Meeting: Atlanta defeated Philadelphia 127-117 – January 30th, 2020

Overview 

The 17-41 Atlanta Hawks have won their first two games out of the All-Star break, and they have done so against two teams that will be in the postseason this year in Miami and Dallas. Granted, both teams were shorthanded, but so were the Hawks. Clint Capela is still sidelined and has yet to make his debut for Atlanta. The trade for Capela made little sense for a team looking to pick high in the lottery, but their vision may be coming into focus, as they have used his pre-existing injury as a pretext to sit him out, and they may continue to do so until the season is over. The more likely scenario is that the Hawks bring him back for the final five to 10 games as they attempt to ascertain if Trae Young and Capela have the necessary chemistry to potentially pass on someone like James Wiseman in favor of some off-guard help. Atlanta was 7-27 heading into 2020, but they have won 10 of 24 games since then. Atlanta has already beaten Philadelphia once this season, and they will be looking for their third-straight upset win against a 76ers team that is expected to be without star player Ben Simmons.

The 35-22 Philadelphia 76ers have the best home record in the league. They have lost only twice all season at home, where they sit at 26-2. They should be able to easily dispatch the Atlanta Hawks, but nothing is ever certain when it comes to the 76ers. Being at home gives them a definite edge, but being shorthanded does not help matters. Ben Simmons missed the first game after the All-Star break with lower back tightness. He started Saturday’s contest against Milwaukee, but he left the contest just five minutes in, and he is expected to receive his MRI results shortly. He is day-to-day and isn’t expected to play tonight. Philadelphia has won four of their last five contests, with their last two losses coming to a clearly superior Milwaukee Bucks team. Philadelphia sits in fifth place in the Eastern Conference due to an atrocious road record. They have the worst road winning percentage of any team in the playoffs, and as such, are not currently projected to make it out of their currently projected first-round matchup with the Miami Heat, who are similarly dominant at home. The 76ers will be looking to pick up their fifth win in their last six outings, but they will need to put away an Atlanta Hawks team that has somehow defeated them in four of the last five meetings between the two. 

Trends

  • Atlanta is 27-30-1 ATS on the season. 
  • Atlanta is 10-20 ATS on the road this season.
  • Philadelphia is 23-30-4 ATS on the season. 
  • Philadelphia is 16-10-2 ATS at home this season.
  • Atlanta is 5-4-1 ATS in their last 10 contests.
  • Atlanta is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road contests.
  • Atlanta is 6-2 ATS in their last eight contests against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
  • Atlanta is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five contests played on one day of rest.
  • Philadelphia is 5-4-1 ATS in their last 10 contests.  
  • Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in their last nine home contests. 
  • Philadelphia is 0-4 ATS in their last four contests against teams with a winning percentage below .400.
  • Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS in their last seven contests played on one day of rest. 
  • Over is 13-5 in Atlanta’s last 18 contests. 
  • Over is 4-1 in Atlanta’s last five contests as an underdog.
  • Over is 4-1 in Atlanta’s last five contests against teams with winning records.
  • Over is 5-2 in Atlanta’s last seven contests as an underdog.
  • Over is 10-2 in Philadelphia’s last 12 contests as a home favorite.
  • Over is 4-1 in Philadelphia’s last five home contests. 
  • Over is 6-2 in Philadelphia’s last eight contests as a favorite. 
  • Over is 4-0 in Philadelphia’s last four home contests against teams with a losing road record.

Prop Bets 

John Collins over 20.5 points (-112)
If you have been following this column for the last couple of weeks, you already knew who the featured player prop was going to be. John Collins has been a click machine, but the sportsbooks seemingly refuse to respond. My eyes lit up when I saw the 20.5 number. Collins has cleared this total in eight of his last nine contests. He has averaged 25.07 points per game in the 14 games he has played since January 22nd, and, in the process, he has thrown his name in the ring as one of the best young bigs in the league. Collins has been better on the road this season as far as scoring is concerned, where he has averaged 22.5 points per game, compared to 19.1 points at home. He has averaged 25.4 points in his nine February contests, and he shows no signs of slowing down. Punch Collins over 20.5 points in at FanDuel as a multi-unit play as soon as possible, as the juice for this player prop appears all but certain to rise. 

Bottom Line 

This is an interesting matchup that appears to present value on both sides. Philadelphia, with only two losses at home all season, is the parlay moneyline team, and they are worth a look for bettors comfortable with the partial-unit returns common with heavy favorites in baseball. The over is the easy play for this contest, as the trends suggest that there is a value at most numbers.

The point spread is much more interesting. As alluded to above, the spread can go either way. Atlanta has a puncher’s chance to win this contest straight up, especially if Ben Simmons is confirmed out for this evening’s contest. If Simmons is indeed ruled out, the Hawks are a potential multi-unit play if they still sit at +8 or better. If Simmons plays, they will be a single-unit play. Philadelphia is 0-4 against the spread in their last four contests against teams with a winning percentage below .400. Atlanta, on the other hand, is 6-2 against the spread in their last eight contests against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Lock in the Hawks +8.5 at DraftKings, and over 228.5 at PointsBet (DK has yet to post over/under due to Simmons’ status being uncertain).

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Pick: Atlanta Hawks +8.5 (-110) and Over 228.5 (-110)

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.