NBA Play of the Day for February 26th, 2020

by Raju Byfield |
Feb 26, 2020

The Atlanta Hawks are set to take on the Orlando Magic for the fourth time this season. Atlanta leads the season series two games to one, but the Magic won the most recent contest. The Hawks actually opened as favorites for this contest. They are nine games behind Orlando, so there is some inherent risk on both sides of the spread based on the line setting. If Orlando opened as the favorite as expected, the lean would be clear. As things currently stand, our analysis will be our lean creator. Letâ€™s dig in to uncover whether or not a spread lean can be established, or if the over/under total presents an option with a higher win probability.

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Details

Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -3 on the Atlanta Hawks. The consensus over/under total opened at 226.5 points. The point spread has dropped to -2. The over/under total has climbed to 227.
Current Line: Orlando -2
O/U: 227
Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, Georgia
Start Time: 7:30 PM EST, Wednesday, February 26th
Last Meeting: Orlando defeated Atlanta 135-126 â€“ February 10th

Overview

The 25-32 Orlando Magic currently sit in eighth place in the Eastern Conference. They are 1.5 games back of a Brooklyn Nets team that has lost oft-injured superstar player Kyrie Irving for the season. The Magic have been getting by without the help of Jonathan Issac, who was officially ruled out for the season earlier this month. Orlando has played some strong defense this season, something that has allowed them to pull off upsets against teams like the Philadelphia 76ers and the Los Angeles Lakers. Nikola Vucevic leads the team in scoring and rebounds, and he has proven that Orlando made the right choice by not selling him for pennies on the dollar this past offseason. Orlando has won three of their last four contests, and they will be looking to tie the season series with a win over the Atlanta Hawks tonight.

The 17-42 Atlanta Hawks have picked up some steam as of late, but they are still waiting on Clint Capela to make his team debut. They have won 11 games in the 25 games since the start of the new year. They were 6-28 prior to 2020. Atlanta came out of the All-Star break hot and have won two of their three contests â€” all against playoff teams. While they dropped their previous contest to the Philadelphia 76ers, they secured victories against both the Miami Heat and the Dallas Mavericks. Atlanta is currently nine games back of Orlando, and with Orlando going on a mini-run of their own, the Hawks are headed to the lottery for the third-straight season. The Hawks have found a way to win two of their three contests against Orlando this season and will be looking to secure the season the series with a win at home tonight.

Trends

Orlando is 24-31-2 ATS on the season.
Orlando is 14-13-1 ATS on the road this season.
Atlanta is 27-31-1 ATS on the season.
Atlanta is 17-10-1 ATS at home this season.
Orlando is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Orlando is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 contests.in Atlantaâ€™s last
Orlando is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 contests against teams with a losing record.
Orlando is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 contests against teams with a winning percentage below .400.
Atlanta is 4-5-1 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Atlanta is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight home contests.
Atlanta is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home contests against teams with losing road records.
Atlanta is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 contests following a loss.
Over is 4-0 in Orlandoâ€™s last four contests.
Over is 3-0-1 in Orlandoâ€™s last four road contests.
Over is 4-0 in Orlandoâ€™s last four Wednesday contests.
Over is 3-0-1 in Orlandoâ€™s last four contests against teams with a winning percentage below .400.
Over is 11-2 in Atlantaâ€™s last 13 home contests.
Over is 7-0 in Atlantaâ€™s last seven home contests against teams with losing road records.
Over is 4-0 in Atlantaâ€™s last four home contests against teams with a winning percentage below .400.
Over is 7-1 in Atlantaâ€™s last eight contests following a loss ATS.

Prop Bets

John Collins over 20.5 points (-104)
The juice for this prop is currently on the under because the Orlando Magic have the number one scoring defense and the number five percentage-based defense. Collinsâ€™ scoring takes a dip at home, where he does not usually need to shoulder as much of the scoring load. He averages 19.1 points per game at home, compared to 22.4 on the road. Collins has cleared the total in nine of his last 10 contests, and he is a player who we are chasing on player props until either he cools down or the number rises north of 21 points for consecutive contests. Collins is averaging 20.8 points per game on the season, but he has seen his scoring spike to 25 points per game in his 10 February contests. The Magic and the Hawks have faced off three times already this season, and Collins has scored just 13.7 points per game in those contests. With that said, he scored 22 against them just five games ago, and he is a strong bet to clear the total tonight. There is more risk than usual in the Collins point prop, so we will keep it to a one-unit play at FanDuel.

Bottom Line

The Atlanta Hawks have won two of their three matchups against the Orlando Magic this season, and they look like a solid bet to do so once again. The Hawks lost to the Magic just before the All-Star break, and they will look to take some revenge at home tonight â€” locking up the season series in the process. The trends suggest that the Hawks are the play, but as favorites, Atlanta is a much more dicey proposition.

With that in mind, we will shift our focus to the over/under total. In the last contest between these two teams, there were a combined 261 points scored. In two contests before then, the teams combined for 202 and 194 points. This suggests that the under may be the play. However, both of those contests were before the turn of the new year, when the Hawks took their game to a higher level. The over/under trends all love the over, and while we usually do not touch totals in this column, they become worth consideration when the trends are unanimous. The sharps and early bettors have already caused the line to rise to 227, and it should continue to rise throughout the day. Follow the early money and lock the over in at -108 at DraftKings.