NBA Play of the Day for February 3rd, 2020

by Raju Byfield |
Feb 03, 2020

The Philadelphia 76ers are set to take on the Miami Heat in Miami. Philadelphia has lost two of their three games against the Heat so far this season and will be looking to tie it up with an upset win. Two of the top teams in the East for much of the season, the Heat have dropped to fourth, while the 76ers have slipped to sixth. The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -3.5 on the Heat but slipped to -2.5 overnight. It has since moved back up to -3, a number that presents potential value on both sides. Letâ€™s dig in.

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Details

Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -3.5 on the Miami Heat. The consensus over/under total opened at 213.5 points. The point spread has dropped to -2.5. The over/under total has dropped to 212.
Current Line: Miami -2.5
O/U: 212
Location: American Airlines Arena, Miami, Florida
Start Time: 7:30 PM EST, Monday, February 3rd
Last Meeting: Miami defeated Philadelphia 117-116 â€“ December 28, 2019

Overview

The Philadelphia 76ers sit in sixth place at a strong 31-19 on the season but have been absolutely pitiful on the road. Their 9-17 record on the road gives them a lower road winning percentage than the Portland Trailblazers, the New Orleans Pelicans, and the Sacramento Kings, all teams that are on the outside looking in at the playoff race in the Western Conference. While they may still look good on paper, they are a far cry from the 2018-19 version of this team that was a Kawhi Leonard triple bounce shot away from the Eastern Conference Finals. Ben Simmonsâ€™s limited range continues to hamstring the offense, and without Jimmy Butler and J.J. Reddick to spread the floor, and keep defenders honest, Joel Embiid has turned into two of the worst games of his career this season. Embiid and Simmons are on their way to the all-star game, but both players would likely trade being named for a legitimate third piece to help them get over the top. Philadelphia will be looking to even up the season series with an upset of the Heat in Miami.

The Miami Heat have dropped to fourth place in the Eastern Conference but still hold a rock-solid 33-15 record. They have been spectacular at home where they have a 21-3 record. Miami has won two of their three contests against Philadelphia this season and will be looking to win the season series against them tonight. Miami appears to be a lock for a playoff spot and could make some noise in the first and the second rounds if they can lock up a top seed. There are still 32 games to be played for the Heat, and if they can move up to second place in the East, they may be able to make their way to the Eastern Conference Finals. Miami has been propelled by the excellent play of all-stars Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, and at times, has looked like one of the best teams in the NBA. The Heat and the 76ers split the two games in Philadelphia, with the Heat winning the lone game in Miami. Miami will be looking to continue their dominance at home by putting away the Heat for the third time this season.

Trends

Miami is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five contests against Philadelphia.
Philadelphia is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five contests in Miami.
Over is 4-1 in the last five contests between these two teams played in Miami.
Philadelphia is 20-26-4 ATS on the season.
Philadelphia is 7-17-2 ATS on the road this season.
Miami is 27-19-2 ATS on the season.
Miami is 16-7-1 ATS at home this season.
Philadelphia is 4-6 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in their last five contests.
Philadelphia is 0-5-1 ATS in their last six contests as a road underdog.
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in their last five contests against teams with winning records.
Philadelphia is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 road contests against teams with a winning home record.
Miami is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Miami is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home contests against teams with a losing road record.
Miami is 0-4 ATS in their last five contests following a win.
Miami is 1-5 ATS in their last six contests played on one day of rest.
Miami is 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 contests as a home favorite.
Under is 7-0 in Philadelphiaâ€™s last seven contests as an underdog.
Under is 7-2 in Philadelphiaâ€™s last nine road contests.
Under is 6-1 in Philadelphiaâ€™s last seven road contests against teams with winning home records.
Over is 13-6 in Miamiâ€™s last 19 home contests.
Over is 10-4 in Miamiâ€™s last 14 home contests against teams with losing road records.
Over is 17-8-1 in Miamiâ€™s last 26 contests as a favorite.

Prop Bets

Bam Adebayo under 9.5 rebounds (-102)
Over was the strong initial lean for this prop, but after looking into his head to head numbers against Philadelphia this season, the under starts to look much more appealing. Adebayo has failed to hit 10 rebounds in any of those contests, recording five, nine, and three rebounds in the three contests against the 76ers this season. There are only two cents juice on this prop as the early money has almost exclusively come in on the over. Adebayo has cleared 9.5 rebounds in each of his last three contests and would be a good bet to do so once again against almost any other team in the NBA. Tap Adebayo under as a one unit play.

Bottom Line

While anything can happen in the NBA, Philadelphia has been a massive disappointment on the road this season. Their abysmal 9-17 road record appears to be proof positive that the 76ers simply due not have the talent to be anything more than a team that makes the postseason without Jimmy Butler. With the trade deadline rapidly approaching, the Sixers need to think long and hard about the true synergy of the two players that think of as their core. Miami has been one of the most dominant home teams in the NBA this season and should be able to secure the win tonight. With the consensus point spread for this contest dropping to -3, Miami has become the clear value. Philadelphia is 1-4 against the spread in their last five contests against teams with winning records, and 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 road contests against teams with a winning home record. Miami, on the other hand, is 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six home contests against teams with losing road records. With both trends and form on their side, there is little debate. Miami is the one unit play at -2.5 at BetMGM.

Pick: Miami Heat -2.5 (-110)