NBA Play of the Day for February 5th, 2020

by Raju Byfield |
Feb 05, 2020

The new-look Atlanta Hawks are set to take on the new-look Minnesota Timberwolves in Minnesota. Both teams were involved in the massive four-team trade that took place yesterday, and have altered their future outlooks in the process. Atlanta took a massive step forward, while Minnesota decided to take a step back. Minnesota opened as surprising six-point favorites for tonightâ€™s contest, but the sharps and early bettors pushed the line down to -4.5. The line could continue to see movement, so identifying a lean quickly is imperative. Letâ€™s dig in.

Claim your FREE bet up to $500 at FanDuel Sportsbook >>

Details

Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -6 on the Minnesota Timberwolves. The consensus over/under total opened at 235.5 points. The point spread has dropped to -4.5. The over/under total has jumped to 239.
Current Line: Minnesota -4.5
O/U: 239
Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Start Time: 8:00 PM EST, Wednesday, February 5th
Last Meeting: Minnesota defeated Atlanta 125-113 â€“ November 25, 2019

Overview

The Atlanta Hawks sit at 13-38 on the season, but have used this trade deadline to start to build for the future. They acquired talented Houston Rockets big man Clint Capela, and also acquired a backup five in Nene. They had to waive Chandler Parsons in order to facilitate the deal, but he was dead weight anyways. The Hawks season is all but over from a playoff hunt perspective, but the future is now looking a lot brighter. The Hawks core now features Trae Young, Clint Capela, John Collins, Deandre Hunter, Kevin Heurter, Cam Reddish, and possibly Jabari Parker. On paper, the Hawks instantly become one of the most talented, and definitely one of the most promising teams in the Eastern Conference. Cam Reddish has been ruled out for tonightâ€™s contest due to a concussion, and Deandre Hunter is questionable, but was able to make it through shootaround this afternoon. Capela and Nene are expected to be available, but there has still been no official word on their statuses. The Hawks will be looking for what could be an easy â€˜upsetâ€™ if Hunter, Capela, and Nene all get cleared.

The 15-34 Minnesota Timberwolves have been one of the most disappointing teams in the entire NBA. Still reeling from their inability to keep star swingman Jimmy Butler content, the T-Wolves just traded away Robert Covington for expiring contracts and a lottery-protected first-round pick. In addition to Covington, they traded away Shabazz Napier, Noah Vonleh, Gerald Green, Kenta Bates-Diop, and Jordan Bell. In addition to the pick, they acquired Evan Turner, Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley, and Juancho Hernangomez. The Timberwolves have been truly pitiful this season, and this deal suggests that they are packing it in. They tried hard to land Dâ€™Angelo Russell in a deal that would have sent Andrew Wiggins to the Warriors, but compensation terms could not be agreed upon. There is still time, but one has to believe that retaining Covington would have been necessary for them to consider moving on from Wiggins in exchange for the all-star point guard. Minnesota has just six wins at home all season, a mark that ties them with the Cleveland Cavaliers for the lowest count in the league. Minnesota has lost 12 games in a row and could have their hands full against the new-look Hawks tonight.

Trends

Atlanta is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five contests against Minnesota.
Over is 4-0 in the last four contests between these two teams.
Atlanta is 23-28 ATS on the season.
Atlanta is 8-18 ATS on the road this season.
Minnesota is 17-30-2 ATS on the season.
Minnesota is 5-18-1 ATS at home this season.
Atlanta is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in their last six road contests.
Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in their last five road contests against teams with losing home records.
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in their last five contests as an underdog.
Minnesota is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in their last four contests as a favorite.
Minnesota is 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 home contests.
Minnesota is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home contests against teams with a losing road record.
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in their last five contests against teams with a losing record.
Over is 5-1 in Atlantaâ€™s last six contests.
Over is 8-2 in Atlantaâ€™s last 10 contests as an underdog.
Over is 7-3 in Atlantaâ€™s last 10 contests against teams with losing records.
Over is 7-2 in Atlantaâ€™s last nine road contests against teams with a losing home record.
Over is 4-0 in Minnesotaâ€™s last four contests against teams with losing records.
Under is 5-1 in Minnesotaâ€™s last six contests as a home favorite.
Under is 6-2 in Minnesotaâ€™s last eight contests as a favorite.
Under is 4-1 in Minnesotaâ€™s last five home contests against teams with a road winning percentage below .400.

Prop Bets

Jarrett Culver over 10.5 points (-118)
Jarrett Culver appears poised for an increased role following the Robert Covington trade, and could very well slide into starters minutes. He has gone under 10.5 points in each of his last seven contests but went over in the 11 games prior. The main difference in those contests besides the obvious shot attempts were the minutes played. With Minnesota now looking toward the 2020-21 season, Culver should get all of the run he can handle. Expect Culver to easily surpass this total tonight, as he should be comfortably in double digits in what should be a high scoring affair. The current 239 consensus over/under is over 10 points higher than any other contest on tonightâ€™s slate. Punch Culver in as a potential multi unit play.

Bottom Line

The Atlanta Falcons suddenly look like one of the most talented teams in the Eastern Conference, and do not have the look of a squad that should have opened as six point underdogs against one of the coldest teams in the league. They have climbed to +4.5, but still appear to hold some value with the Minnesota Timberwolves playing as poorly as they have in their 12 straight losses. The Hawks are now arguably the more talented team, and if Capela is active tonight, should be listed no higher than -3. Atlanta has won six of their 13 contests since the start of January, and are in much better form than the Timberwolves. Atlanta is 5-5 against the spread in their last 10 contests, Minnesota is 1-9. The Hawks are a potential moneyline play here, and the +180 line at 888Sport looks good enough to hit. For those looking for a cushion, the +5.5 at 888Sport is still the top line on our live odds page. Lock it in as soon as possible, as it is all but certain to drop.

Pick: Atlanta Hawks +5.5 (-110) or Atlanta Hawks moneyline (+180)