NBA Play of the Day for January 13th, 2020

by Raju Byfield |
Jan 13, 2020

The Oklahoma City Thunder will be looking to solidify their playoff positioning tonight against their division rival Minnesota Timberwolves. The Thunder have been playing strong basketball as of late, and they are much smaller favorites than one would anticipate based on recent form. When we consider the fact that Karl Anthony-Towns did not even make the trip to Houston, the consensus point spread for this contest could offer tremendous value. Letâ€™s dig in.

Claim your FREE bet up to $500 at FanDuel Sportsbook >>

Details

Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -2 on Oklahoma City. The consensus over/under total opened at 218.5 points. The point spread has held steady at -2. The over/under total has climbed to 219.5.
Current Line: Oklahoma City -2
O/U: 219.5
Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Start Time: 8:00 PM EST, Monday, January 13th
Last Meeting: Oklahoma City defeated Minnesota 139-127 â€“ December 6, 2019

Overview

The 22-17 Oklahoma City Thunder are now five games over .500, and they will be looking for their 12th win in 15 games with a victory tonight over the Minnesota Timberwolves. Their inability to find a taker for Chris Paulâ€™s albatross of a contract has resulted in the Thunder leaping into playoff position, and with the way the West has looked this season, they will need to tank in order to find themselves back in the lottery. Chris Paul has proved to be a wonderful mentor for prized guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and regardless of what Thunder fans may think of how much money they are paying Paul, his mentorship of SGA is only going to hasten his development. Currently in seventh place, the Thunder are making a push for sixth with their recent strong play. The Dallas Mavericks are two games ahead of them at 24-15, but they have been without Kristaps Porzingis for their last eight contests. Dallas has lost five of their last nine, creating an opportunity for the Thunder. They will look to take further advantage of the Mavericksâ€™ slipping play with a win against Minnesota.

The 15-23 Minnesota Timberwolves have continued to disappoint in the 2019-20 season. They currently sit in 12th place in the Western Conference and are likely already looking toward the 2020 NBA Draft. Their 3-0 start to the season seems like a distant memory, and things appear set to get worse before they get any better. Superstar big man Karl Anthony-Towns will likely miss his 14th-consecutive contest tonight, a stretch through which they have gone 5-9. Minnesota has won just five of their last 20 contests overall. On the good news front, rookie guard Jarrett Culver has started to flash the immense upside that made him the sixth overall pick. He has hit double figures in each of his last seven contests and has crossed the 20 point barrier twice in that stretch. The Timberwolves simply do not have the talent to compete in the West this season, but if KAT, Wiggins, and Culver can continue to grow together, they could be a force with just one more impact addition to the roster. Minnesota is going to have their work cut out for them against the Thunder, but they will be looking to pull off an upset that could propel them to 10th place in the West.

Trends

Oklahoma City is 26-13 ATS on the season.
Oklahoma City is 14-5 ATS on the road this season.
Minnesota is 16-10-2 ATS on the season.
Minnesota is 5-11-1 ATS at home this season.
Oklahoma City is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Oklahoma City is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road contests.
Oklahoma City is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 contests.
Oklahoma City is 4-0 ATS in their last four road contests against teams with losing home records.
Oklahoma City is 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests as a road favorite.
Minnesota is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Minnesota is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home contests.
Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests.
Minnesota is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 Monday contests.
Minnesota is 4-0 ATS in their last four contests following a loss.
Over is 7-1 in Oklahoma Cityâ€™s last eight contests as a favorite.
Under s 7-3 in Oklahoma Cityâ€™s last 10 contests.
Under is 8-3 in Oklahoma Cityâ€™s last 11 road contests.
Over is 11-1 in Oklahoma Cityâ€™s last 12 contests as a road favorite.
Over is 5-0 in Oklahoma Cityâ€™s last five contests against teams with losing records.
Under is 4-1 in Minnesotaâ€™s last five home contests.
Under is 9-4 in Minnesotaâ€™s last 13 contests.
Over is 4-0 in Minnesotaâ€™s last four contests against teams with winning records.
Over is 9-3 in Minnesotaâ€™s last 12 Monday contests.
Under is 4-1 in Minnesotaâ€™s last five home contests against teams with losing road records.

Prop Bets

Chris Paul over 24.5 points + assists (-110)
There are no Minnesota player props up as Vegas waits to get confirmation as to whether or not Karl Anthony-Towns will actually play tonight. His left knee sprain has sidelined him for over a month, and he was also dealing with an illness as recently as Saturday. On the Thunder, there are a couple of player props to consider including Danillo Gallinari and SGA points over, but Chris Paul points and assists over 24.5 seems like the strongest value. This is a well-set number (23.5 would be the true value, and is likely where the number should have opened at), as Paul is averaging 23.2 combined points and assists per contest. The number for this contest was inflated due to Paulâ€™s success against Minnesota in early December (30 points, seven assists). It is important, however, to remember that it was an overtime contest. This is far from the multi-unit prop plays we had last week, and instead should be viewed as a one-unit play due to the risk. Paul has crossed 24.5 in just three of his last eight contests, but he is a strong bet to cover against a team he has had success against this year. Minnesota has a severe lack of talent at the point guard position, and at 114.7 points allowed per game, they rank as the sixth-worst scoring defense in the league. Fire this prop up at FanDuel for a one-unit return.

Bottom Line

Oklahoma City should be able to win this contest relatively easily. They have not been great in their recent contests as road favorites (2-5 ATS), but they have been an excellent 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 road contests overall. As mentioned above, Karl Anthony-Towns did not even make the trip to Houston on Saturday, and will likely miss tonightâ€™s contest. A -2 spread with no Towns has tremendous appeal, so be on the lookout for an update on his status later this afternoon. Minnesota has struggled in their recent home games, and they are just 3-9 against the spread in their last 12 contests at the Target Center. Cementing the Thunder as the play is their 12 point overtime victory over the Timberwolves early last month. If Minnesota was healthy this is the spread one would expect, with no KAT this is a line that cannot be ignored. Lock this in as a one-unit play at FanDuel if KAT is indeed ruled out.

Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -2 (-110)