NBA Play of the Day for January 20th, 2020

by Raju Byfield |
Jan 20, 2020

The ninth-place San Antonio Spurs are set to take on the 10th place Phoenix Suns in what should be an interesting contest. The Spurs have suffered multiple fourth-quarter collapses in the last two weeks and will need to avoid another one tonight to prevent Phoenix from passing them in the standings. The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -3.5, but the spread has already moved to -4 at some books and should continue to climb up until game time. Letâ€™s dig in.

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Details

Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -3.5 on Phoenix Suns. The consensus over/under total opened at 228 points. The point spread has held steady at -3.5. The over/under total was not posted until Monday morning and has held steady at 228.
Current Line: Phoenix -3.5
O/U: 228
Location: Talking Stick Resort Arena, Phoenix, Arizona
Start Time: 9:00 PM EST, Monday, January 20th
Last Meeting: San Antonio defeated Phoenix 121-119 â€“ November 5, 2019

Overview

The 18-23 San Antonio Spurs currently sit in ninth place in the Western Conference, and with the eighth-place Memphis Grizzlies playing so well and in the midst of a seven-game winning streak, the Spurs are now in legitimate danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 1997. San Antonio has lost three of their last five and will drop to 10th place in the West with a loss to the Phoenix Suns tonight. DeMar DeRozan has been on fire recently, but not even his strong play has been enough to keep the Spurs from slipping out of playoff position. San Antonio upset the Miami Heat yesterday and will be looking to make it two wins a row with a road victory tonight.

The 18-24 Phoenix Suns currently sit in 10th place in the Western Conference and could leapfrog the 18-23 San Antonio Spurs with a win against them tonight. The Suns have won two straight and will be looking to make it three in a row. Devin Booker has been scoring at an elite level over his last three games, averaging 35.9 points per contest. He has averaged 31.9 per game over his nine January contests. Phoenix started the season strong, but crashed back to earth violently, providing a reality check to a team that still appears to be at least a year away from being a contender to even make the postseason. With that being said, they have won four of their last five, and have looked better than San Antonio over the past couple weeks. Tonight will be an interesting test for the Suns to ascertain where their team may stand this season.

Trends

San Antonio is 16-24-1 ATS on the season.
San Antonio is 9-9 ATS on the road this season.
Phoenix is 22-19-1 ATS on the season.
Phoenix is 10-12 ATS at home this season.
San Antonio is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 contests.
San Antonio is 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road contests.
San Antonio is 6-2 ATS in their last eight contests as an underdog.
San Antonio is 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests as a road underdog.
Phoenix is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Phoenix is 0-4 ATS in their last four home contests.
Phoenix is 0-4 ATS in their last four home contests against teams with losing road records.
Phoenix is 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests.
Over is 10-4 in San Antonioâ€™s last 14 contests.
Over is 5-1 in San Antonioâ€™s last six contests following a win ATS.
Over is 4-1 in San Antonioâ€™s last five road contests against teams with losing home records.
Over is 16-6 in San Antonioâ€™s last 22 contests played on zero days of rest.
Under is 4-0 in Phoenixâ€™s last four home contests.
Over is 5-1 in Phoenixâ€™s last six contests as a home underdog.
Under is 5-2 in Phoenixâ€™s last seven contests.
Under is 4-0 in Phoenixâ€™s last four home contests against teams with losing road records.

Prop Bets

DeMar DeRozan over 24.5 points (-108)
DeMar DeRozan has been on fire over the past month and has scored at least 20 points in 14 straight contests. He has scored more than 24 points in 12 of his last 14 games and has scored 25 or more in 10 of his last 14. The juice for this prop is currently on the under because this line was set high enough to spur some line shopping. DeRozan is averaging just 22.6 points per game on the season, making the 24.5 number one to fade at first glance. However, the number was set at 24.5 instead of 23.5 due to the opponent. The Phoenix Suns allow 114 points per game on .496 percent shooting. Both marks rank them among the 11 worst in the NBA. Lock this one in as a multi-unit play, as we continue to ride with DeRozan over until the wheels fall off.

Devin Booker over 28.5 points (-114)
If DeMar DeRozan has been on fire, then Devin Booker has been scorching. He has scored 35.9 points per game over his last three contests and is averaging 31.9 points per game in his nine January contests. He has cleared the 28.5 total for this contest in 10 of his last 12 outings. The juice for this prop is currently on the overdue to this line being listed much lower than one many may have anticipated. He is averaging just 26.5 points per game on the season, and spiking a player prop point total more than two points absent a major impact injury to a teammate just does not happen that often as Vegas is too concerned about sharps eating them alive on under plays. The Spurs are one of the worst teams in the league in scoring defense, as their 114.6 points per game allowed currently ranks as the sixth most in the league. They have allowed their opponents to shoot a ridiculous .498 from the field. Lock this one in as a multi-unit play at FanDuel.

Bottom Line

This is likely to be a highly contested matchup that can go either way. When it doubt, however, it is often wise to stick with the home team if you can get an appealing number. The consensus point spread for this contest currently sits at -3.5 on Phoenix specifically because they are playing at home. Three points is the expected spread for a home team in a contest that is as close to even as this one. The Suns have won four of their last five games, while the Spurs have lost two of their last three, so that may have something to do with the extra .5 that was tacked onto the spread. It is equally likely that this number opened at -3 in Vegas and saw significant sharp action which caused this line to move to -3.5. Phoenix has been horrible against the spread in their recent contests. They come into tonight with an 0-4 mark against the spread in their last four home games. The Spurs, on the other hand, are 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine road contests and have the benefit of an ATS cushion. Based on the forms of these teams, the sharp and early money should continue to come in on Phoenix. This means we could see an even more appealing -4 or -4.5 on San Antonio by game time. The suggestion here is to focus your units on the player props above, while at the same time being ready to pounce on the spread for this contest before game time. -3 or less is a one-unit Suns play, -4 or higher is a Spurs play for the same amount.

Pick: San Antonio Spurs +4 (-110)