NBA Play of the Day for January 31st, 2020

by Raju Byfield |
Jan 31, 2020

The NBA world is still reeling over the loss of Kobe Bryant and his daughter Gigi (Gianna). Nowhere has this loss been felt greater than in Los Angeles and around the Staples Center. The Lakers and Clippers canceled their Tuesday showdown, but the Lakers are expected to host the Blazers tonight in what should be an emotional affair for both the players and Kobeâ€™s adoring fanbase in Los Angeles. There were other strong candidates for todayâ€™s play of the day, including but not limited to the New Orleans Pelicans versus the Memphis Grizzlies, but with heavy hearts still guiding us, all of our focus will be on the Lakers game at 10:30 PM EST, 7:30 PST. Letâ€™s dig in.

Claim your FREE bet up to $500 at FanDuel Sportsbook >>

Details

Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -12.5 on the Los Angeles Lakers. The consensus over/under total opened at 230 points. The point spread climbed to -13 early, but it has since dropped to -12. The over/under total has climbed to 230.5.
Current Line: Los Angeles -12
O/U: 230.5
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Start Time: 10:30 PM EST, Friday, January 31st
Last Meeting: Los Angeles defeated Portland 128-120 â€” December 28th, 2019

Overview

The Los Angeles Lakers currently sit in first place in the Western Conference with a 36-10 record. They will try to power through the first quarter of tonightâ€™s game before the catharsis of being on the court starts to propel them through their heartache. The Lakers have defeated the Blazers twice already this season, both in Portland. They won by eight points in late December, and they won by 23 in early December. Anthony Davis is dealing with a glute injury, but after playing through it versus the 76ers on Saturday, there is no way he misses this game. JaVale McGee is expected back tonight after missing the last two contests. Barring a significant injury to one of their players, the Lakers should be able to hold onto the first seed in the West. The Clippers are five games back and have been a relative disappointment this season. The second-place Nuggets are a good team, but nowhere near as dominant as the Lakers. Los Angeles will be looking to get back on the winning track after a disappointing loss to the Philadelphia 76ers in their last contest.

The Portland Trailblazers currently sit in 10th place in the Western Conference with a 21-27 record. They are three games behind the 24-24 Memphis Grizzlies and are in legitimate danger of missing the playoffs. This is truly alarming when one considers that the Blazers were in the Western Conference Finals last season. Luckily for Portland, Jusuf Nurkic is back at practice, and he should be able to return around the all-star break. Teammate Damian Lillard said Nurkic looked good, and he should be able to provide a spark to the Blazersâ€™ second unit once he starts ramping up his minutes. He will be returning to a very different Portland team that now starts Hassan Whiteside at his old center position, and starts future Hall of Famer Carmelo Anthony at power forward. The Blazers have won three of their last four contests, thanks to the blistering play of Damian Lillard. The all-star guard has averaged 48.5 points per game in those four contests. Portland will be hoping to make it four out of five with an upset of the Los Angeles Lakers.

Trends

Portland is 18-28-2 ATS on the season.
Portland is 10-15 ATS on the road this season.
Los Angeles is 24-21-1 ATS on the season.
Los Angeles is 11-9-1 ATS at home this season.
Portland is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Portland is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road contests.
Portland is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 contests as an underdog.
Portland is 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests as a road underdog.
Portland is 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 contests.
Portland is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 contests against teams with winning records.
Los Angeles is 5-4-0 ATS in their last 10 contests (PPD game).
Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in their last five contests as a favorite.
Los Angeles is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five Friday contests.
Los Angeles is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 home contests.
Over is 6-0 in Portlandâ€™s six contests against teams with a winning record.
Over is 5-1 in Portlandâ€™s last six contests.
Under is 10-4 in Portlandâ€™s last 14 road contests.
Over is 7-3 in Portlandâ€™s last 10 Friday contests.
Over is 7-2 in Los Angelesâ€™ last nine contests.
Over is 4-0 in Los Angelesâ€™ last four Friday contests.
Over is 13-4 in Los Angelesâ€™ last 17 contests against teams with losing records.
Under is 38-16 in Los Angelesâ€™ last 54 contests as a home favorite.

Prop Bets

Damian Lillard over 31.5 points (-120)
Damian Lillard has been on an absolute tear. He has averaged 48.5 points per game over his last four contests, a stretch where the Blazers have won three of four. With 30 points in his last six straight contests, Lillard has set a new franchise mark, and he will look to extend the record to seven games tonight. Lillard has scored more than 31.5 points in each of those six contests. There will very likely be a stark lack of defense in tonightâ€™s contest, and Lillard figures to be the player that takes the most advantage. Ride with Lillard until the line gets too high, or the wheels fall off. The juice for this prop currently sits at -120 and should continue to rise, so lock this in at FanDuel as soon as possible.

Damian Lillard over 3.5 three-pointers made (-176)
As alluded to above, Damian Lillard has been on fire over his last six games, a stretch where he has scored at least 34 points in each contest. Lillard has drained 33 threes in his last four games, and he will undoubtedly be hoisting up at least 12 against the Lakers. Lillard has crossed 3.5 three-pointers made in each of his last five contests. The juice on this prop is alarmingly high, but that is due to the win probability. Just think of this as a baseball line. When you look at this prop from that context, it is clear that this prop should be closer to -230. Lock this one in at FanDuel immediately, as the juice is bound to keep rising.

Bottom Line

The Los Angeles Lakers should walk away with an easy victory in tonightâ€™s contest. While the players and the arena as a whole will be emotionally charged, the atmosphere, while somber, should also be electric at the same time. The fanbase needs to heal, and while time may be one of the key ingredients in that process, enjoying the game that made them fall in love with Bryant in the first place will also offer some catharsis.

The consensus point spread for this contest was quickly bet up from -12.5 to -13 on the Lakers, but it can now found at -12. Los Angeles and Portland have already squared off twice this season with the Lakers winning both games on the road. They won the first contest by a score of 136-113, and the second contest by a score of 128-120, making the over an easy tap.

The spread is a little more difficult since 12 is a large number, regardless of the opponent. With that said, the Blazers have been atrocious against the spread when playing against strong opponents. They are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 contests as an underdog. Los Angeles, on the other hand, has covered in 11 of their last 15 home contests, with one being a push.

Fifty-nine percent of the early spread action came in on the Blazers, so it comes as no surprise that the number has started to move the other way. Twelve points is an ideal number, especially when one takes the opening consensus point spread and early line movement into account, but there is some appeal in waiting on the line to potentially land at -11.5 spread or better. With that in mind, we suggest a one unit play at -12 with the potential for more action if the point spread drops.

Pick: Los Angeles Lakers -12 (-110) and Over 230.5